Looking at how many people have been discussing the 26-year market cycle on forums recently, it seems the pattern has already been locked in: a rebound from February to April with a big altcoin rally, then a steady decline starting in May, bottoming out in Q4, and waiting for a new cycle.

Honestly, I think it's unlikely next year will follow such a standardized pattern. But most people disagree and say it will end up the same anyway. The question is—if this logic is correct, why didn't 2025 replicate the big bull markets of 2017 and 2021? BTC did surge past 120,000, but look—if it were a typical liquidity-driven bull market, we should see at least 150,000 this year. But what happened? It didn't have that strength.

In essence, it's one sentence: true easing hasn't appeared. There are market movements this year, but frankly, they are structural lifts. Compared to the bull markets built on liquidity releases back then, these are on a completely different scale. This alone is evidence of "difference."

Of course, 2026 isn't without risks. The core depends on how the US economy performs and the pace of Japan's monetary policy. But there are also some positive signals—like the halt of balance sheet reduction on December 1st, which is the first clear liquidity shift signal since 2022.

My judgment is this: 2026 is unlikely to become a comprehensive bear market like 2022. Without explicit balance sheet expansion or economic recession, the market is more likely to move in segments—rising here, stagnating there—rather than a single, continuous decline.

Historical examples have already shown this: from September 2024 to January 2025 was a phase, from April to October 2025 another, with 2 to 3 months of sideways movement in between. Now, starting in November, we are entering this oscillation mode again.

When will the next phase emerge? I lean towards around January 6th, or after mid-January, when the trend will gradually become clearer. There's no need to rush now; just get through this month comfortably first.

The key signal to watch is: if the price drops below 98 and can't recover in the short term, and on-chain sentiment shifts clearly to panic, then we need to be alert. Conversely, as long as it stays above 101, and sentiment and news improve, the market will have the confidence to continue its fluctuations.

As for this current period? Just hold on. Essentially, it's the market's garbage time.