2025-12-25 08:29:46

Ethereum's recent short-term correction is still quite interesting. I didn't really add to long positions much; on smaller timeframes, it looks like a rebound might be coming, and the chart just happened to form a bullish flag pattern. Based on the 1-hour timeframe, this pattern suggests that the price is likely to test around the 3000 level.

But from a different perspective, looking at the 4-hour chart, this move is a B-point rebound, meaning it hits a secondary high and then enters a C-wave acceleration downward. With that in mind, my plan is very clear — wait until the rebound reaches the 3000-3020 zone, then prepare to open a short position. If I can get in, the profit potential won't be too bad, at least a hundred points or so.

These days, my predictions haven't been too far off, but I tend to be quite conservative, so I've missed several opportunities. Plus, with the volatility around Christmas decreasing more and more, sometimes not catching a move is actually lucky. Honestly, the marginal benefit of going long has been diminishing lately.

Right now, I just want to play it safe. My consecutive wins so far are to protect profits from retracement. It's okay if I can't catch every move, but I must avoid getting hit — preserve the principal, because there are still plenty of opportunities ahead. I also want to remind everyone: in a market with poor risk-reward ratio, you must keep your emotions in check. Relying on luck might make you a few wins, but one big loss can wipe out your entire capital and gains.

ETH0.26%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

10 Likes

Reward
10
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

CryptoPunster

· 11h ago

It's the same 3000-3020 trick again. I bet you'll have to say it again next time. Talking about continuous wins and protecting profits makes me think of my own account's "dark history." The price of playing it safe is watching opportunities slip away. That's right, losing once can wipe out everything. I've experienced that feeling too many times. If this rebound can really be caught, that would be great. I bet five dollars I'll get slapped in the face again. Protecting the principal is correct, but sometimes being too cautious causes you to miss the rebound. It's a dilemma.

View OriginalReply0

SelfStaking

· 11h ago

Bro, this analysis isn't bad, but I don't think the 3000 level is that easy to break through. I'm just worried that if the rebound doesn't hit properly, it'll drop straight down, and you'll get caught holding a short position... A market with poor cost-effectiveness is hard to hold onto, I understand that very well. I’ve paid a lot of tuition fees to realize this. Waiting for a rebound? I don't dare to gamble anymore. I'd rather earn less than get caught in another trap.

View OriginalReply0

UnluckyValidator

· 11h ago

Sometimes being conservative is the real winner. Not taking the trades might actually help you live longer. This wave of 3000 definitely needs to be watched, but I'm now just afraid of getting trapped. I'd rather miss out than get beaten. The recent market has indeed been boring, with volatility like sleeping. The idea of maintaining profits with consecutive wins is not bad at all, much better than those who go all-in and gamble. I'm just worried about human nature—always trying to catch the bottom and sell at the top, but end up getting slapped in the face. I'm also leaning towards short positions, but I really don't feel comfortable at this point. Wait, wait, wait—don't rush in. There will be more opportunities ahead.

View OriginalReply0

ForkItAllDay

· 11h ago

I appreciate the conservative approach; indeed, many people die because of greed. --- Listening to short positions at 3000-3020 sounds good, but I still say, if the market doesn't give opportunities, there's no need to force it. --- Are even the consistently winning traders so timid? Haha just kidding, but this attitude is really the foundation for survival. --- This last paragraph hit home—one retracement can wipe out all previous gains, so true. --- Small-scale flag pattern vs. four-hour B point, this contradictory statement left me a bit confused. --- Not entering the market during volatility decay is indeed wise; compared to earning a few dozen points, life is more valuable. --- I like the mindset of protecting the principal; it's much more rational than going all-in with full positions. --- A profit margin of a few hundred points is good, but what if it reverses? Have you considered the risks carefully? --- Holding back your hands is easy to say but hard to do; most people ultimately can't withstand it.

View OriginalReply0

TheMemefather