Seeing the news that a major institution increased its ETH holdings by 1 billion USD, the only thought that flashes through my mind is: retail investors are about to give away their money again.

Over the past three months, I’ve discovered a particularly painful pattern—whenever this institution makes a high-profile statement, the trend of ETH should be questioned, even looked down upon. But this time? Still, a bunch of people hear the word "increase" and immediately chase up at the $2,940 level.

Why am I not that excited? I looked at on-chain data and understood: this institution started accumulating ETH when it was still at $3,400 in early November. Up to now, they’ve bought a total of 580,000 ETH, investing 1.72 billion USD, with an average cost of around $3,208. Now, at $2,940, they’re sitting on an unrealized loss of 141 million USD. Even more brutal, they’ve added leverage—borrowing 8.87 billion USDT from a lending protocol, nearly double the leverage ratio.

Many people see this data and go all-in, but it’s important to clarify one thing: institutional accumulation is not a bottom signal at all.

What’s the difference? Institutions can absorb paper losses; retail investors cannot. They manage over 10 billion USD, and this 1.7 billion USD ETH position only accounts for 17%. Even if ETH drops another 50%, their overall account would only lose 8.5%. But retail investors? Fully leveraged positions or even margin trading, a 20% drop in ETH could wipe out their entire account.

And here’s an even more painful point: institutions play the waiting game, retail investors play the fast-food game.

They build positions gradually over two months, while retail investors see a tweet and go all-in that night. The next day, when ETH drops to $2,800, they start panicking. Institutions are calculating cycles; retail investors are waiting for tomorrow’s rise—that’s the fundamental difference.

I have to say something less pleasant: sometimes, institutional accumulation is just marketing.

History’s big crashes and project collapses in crypto have already taught us that what you think is a bottom might just be their liquidity needs.

In plain words: the positive news you see might just be a signal for them to get you in.

Ask yourself three more realistic questions: Is this money really idle? Can you calmly watch it drop another 30%? Do you have the patience to wait 3 to 6 months? If the answer is no, don’t move.

If you really want to participate, don’t just copy institutional conclusions—learn from their tactics. For example, if you have 100,000 RMB to buy ETH, don’t buy it all at once. Buy 30% at the current price, and if it drops another 10%, buy another 30%. Keep the remaining 40% for the final push.

And always have a bottom line: if you bought at $2,940, sell if it drops to $2,500. It’s okay to be wrong; preserving your capital is the real skill. Wait for the real bottom.

Remember this final sentence: institutional accumulation is just their show, not your reference. Your task isn’t to participate in this play but to survive and see the next round.