#预测市场 Recently saw the news that Phantom has launched a prediction market, and some friends asked me whether I want to participate. It reminded me of many investors I have encountered before, who always get excited about high-yield opportunities but often overlook the underlying risks.

Prediction markets are essentially a form of gambling—you're guessing the outcome of future events. Predictions related to sports, crypto, and cultural events sound diverse and interesting, but that is precisely where the risk lies. Market predictions are inherently uncertain; no one can consistently beat the odds.

If you really want to try, my simple advice is: treat this money as a "completely disposable part." Specifically, only allocate a very small proportion of your total assets to participate—I usually recommend no more than 1-2% of your total investable amount. Set a stop-loss, avoid adding more, and don't let short-term volatility sway your emotions.

Long-term wealth accumulation has never been achieved through one or two quick prediction wins. Safe asset allocation and a stable investment mindset—these seemingly ordinary things—are the true foundation for protecting wealth. New products bring new opportunities, but also require new vigilance.