The night in Tokyo remains dazzling, but the flickering exchange rates on the digital screens send signals of danger.

On Monday, Japanese Finance Minister Shōzō Katayama's statement stirred the market—"We have the decisive authority to intervene against abnormal fluctuations that deviate from fundamentals." As soon as he finished speaking, the yen immediately rebounded. Short-term bears retreated, and the market seemed to calm down.

However, this calm is only superficial. Japan's foreign exchange reserves of $1.3 trillion sound substantial, but last year, they were burned by a hard $66 billion. Currently, the exchange rate is approaching the 160 mark—how many more rounds can this minister's ammunition last? Ironically, after the rate hike, the yen depreciated instead, and the market began to mock: is this strengthening the currency or testing the government's bottom line?

The US-Japan interest rate differential has reached 5.4%, and US dollar funds are continuously flowing out of Japan. Meanwhile, the government has rolled out an emergency supplementary budget of 18.3 trillion yen, but the bond market shows signs of collapse—the 10-year government bond yield has surged to 2.1%. Policy contradictions are like dancing on a wire, ready to fall at any moment.

Shōzō Katayama has influential connections in Washington and has issued tough words: "On standby at all times, no days off." But with foreign reserves nearing bottom and confidence wavering, will the next intervention be a life-saving raft or a desperate struggle before death? The high-stakes gamble concerning the nation's fate has already begun its New Year countdown…