12/25 Market Analysis

Currently, the market is in a technically weak phase, with a complex combination of liquidity drying up and the "year-end event disturbances." The current narrow-range oscillation is not a sign of a stable trend but rather a temporary "dormancy" of bullish and bearish momentum during the holiday period. The price is likely to continue oscillating within a weak zone, with Bitcoin's core trading range expected between 86,000-89,000, and altcoins between 2,880-3,050. Special attention should be paid to potential sharp two-way volatility on Thursday and Friday due to options expiration and liquidity drying up. The market's true directional decision will unfold in the first week of 2026.

At that time, institutional fund re-entry, ETF fund flow data recovery, and macro policy expectations for the new year will jointly determine the market direction. Focus should be on whether Bitcoin can regain and hold above 89,000 and push towards 90,000, and whether Ethereum can effectively recover above 3,050 and return above 3,000.

In the current holiday mode, the primary task is risk management rather than profit pursuit. Adopt a strict range trading mindset. Look for rebounds around support levels of Bitcoin 86,000-86,500 and altcoins 2,900-2,880, and expect pullbacks near resistance levels of Bitcoin 88,000-88,500 and altcoins 3,000-3,050. Set strict stop-losses to prevent amplified volatility risks amid liquidity contraction during the holiday.

Beneath the calm surface, bullish and bearish momentum are temporarily dormant. The current priority is not to predict short-term rises or falls but to prepare sufficient funds and clear strategies for potential post-holiday volatility. The market is quietly accumulating strength for the closing of 2025 and the beginning of 2026. Finally, wishing everyone a Merry Christmas! $BTC #ETH走势分析