#美联储回购协议计划 The Federal Reserve is caught in a policy dilemma, with Bitcoin oscillating around the $86,000 mark. Is there still hope for a Christmas rally?

Recently, the Fed's actions have been a textbook example of self-contradiction. On December 22, they injected $6.8 billion in a single day, with nearly $38 billion of liquidity injected over the past 10 days, yet the crypto and stock markets haven't shown any signs of movement.

Industry insiders privately complain about this combination of measures, saying more bluntly — they are shouting about ending quantitative tightening while simultaneously draining liquidity through reverse repurchase agreements. On December 18, the overnight reverse repo scale surged to $10.361 billion, exemplifying a clear contradiction.

The deeper issue is actually the US debt black hole. An additional $700 billion in debt was added in three months, effectively draining market liquidity. Interbank borrowing costs soared, and financing difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises reached a record high.

Ironically, the liquidity released by the Fed has all flowed into the financial markets — the S&P 500 hit new highs, gold's annual increase exceeded 60%, while ordinary investors' wages have shrunk for three consecutive months.

Things are even worse for $BTC. The price remains sideways at $86,000, and market sentiment has fallen into extreme fear, with the Greed & Fear Index at 25. On-chain data is also not optimistic: long-term holders are continuously reducing their positions, and $300 billion worth of dormant Bitcoin has re-entered the market this year. Funds in spot ETFs have shifted from net inflows to net outflows.

To make matters worse, the Bank of Japan just raised interest rates to a 30-year high of 0.75%. Historical patterns suggest this move typically triggers a roughly 15% correction in Bitcoin.

However, there are some bright spots. The $270 billion stablecoin reserves (including $16 billion in USDT) are still on the books, and the Fed's reverse repo balance has fallen to a low of $30.47 million — these are potential trading ammunition. Based on data, this year's Christmas rally may not break the pattern of previous years' big gains. Instead, the Fed's current policy combination is eroding market expectations.

For those looking to bottom fish, keep an eye on two indicators: the bank reserve ratio and the reverse repo balance. If these two show a clear reversal, that will be a true entry signal.