Bitcoin's recent trend is a bit of a dilemma. If we say it's bullish, the upward momentum is clearly insufficient; if we say it's bearish, it's oscillating repeatedly at high levels, feeling very airless. Ultimately, the bulls and bears are in a tug-of-war, and the market is at a critical point.

Currently, there are several risk factors that cannot be ignored. First, long-term holders are continuously selling and cashing out after reaching historical highs. Although the pace is slow, the persistent selling pressure is like needles piercing the enthusiasm of buyers. Coupled with the Christmas and New Year holiday season, market liquidity is already shrinking, and volatility is easily amplified—making trading even riskier in this environment.

More painfully, on December 26th, about $28.5 billion in options contracts are set to expire, which could directly trigger market volatility. On the futures side, open interest has reached $60 billion. If prices pull back, high-leverage positions could trigger chain liquidations in minutes, causing a stampede-like decline. Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs are still experiencing net outflows, and institutional buying support has noticeably weakened.

From a technical perspective, key levels must be closely watched. The resistance above is around $90,000; only a clear breakthrough and stabilization here can open new space for further gains. The vital support below is in the $86,000 to $87,000 range; if this breaks, the risk of a pullback will rise sharply.

Honestly, the current situation tests one’s mindset. Without a clear directional signal, avoid rushing to chase gains or cut losses, especially steer clear of high leverage. Focus on the US trading hours, observe how the price tests key support and resistance levels in real-time. Frequent "spikes" and prolonged battles at critical levels all hint that the market is fragile, with both bulls and bears hesitating. Once the direction becomes clear, it’s not too late to act.