Regarding Bitcoin, is it really time to draw a conclusion now? I think it's still too early to say.

Recently, I've been watching the fund inflow data on exchanges, and that feeling... is somewhat familiar. I know this pattern too well.

Looking back at previous bull and bear cycles, the logic is actually quite straightforward: when the market peaks, funds flood into exchanges madly. At that time, everyone was thinking the same thing—selling off, taking profits, and getting out quickly. The supply suddenly surged just as everyone was confidently saying "This time it's really the top."

But now? None of those hallmark signals have appeared.

The price has indeed risen sharply. Market sentiment is also very tense, with everyone's nerves on edge. But the activity on the chain is surprisingly calm. That surge of funds usually seen at the end of a cycle? It’s absent. Not a bit.

This is interesting. I start to ask myself: has the market structure really changed, or are we simply not there yet?

From a historical perspective, the final stage is usually not characterized by weakness and indecision. It’s overheated, greedy, and driven by that impulse to "cash out and run." To do that? The first step is to transfer Bitcoin to an exchange. That’s standard procedure, a scene repeated in every cycle.

But this move hasn't happened yet.

Holders don’t seem in any rush to sell their chips. It’s as if the market still has more to say. As if we haven't heard that crucial sentence yet.

I'm not signaling anything, nor am I making predictions. It’s more like adding another stroke to the overall picture. That’s all.

Sometimes, the fifth wave doesn’t shine brightly. It’s not as spectacular as fireworks. Instead, all at once, people suddenly realize something—continuing to hold this thing is starting to become frightening.

I want to ask everyone: what are your thoughts on this current stage? Have you already sensed the end is near? Or do you feel some strange "not over yet" vibe?

Should we dig deeper into this? I can compare on-chain data patterns from historical cycles to see how the true "top" usually manifests. If you're interested, we can continue.