Investors in 2025 are holding a hammer—fear reminiscent of the 2000 tech bubble. The question is, they are looking for nails everywhere, but have they really found any?

This actually stems from a psychological phenomenon. In 1966, psychologist Abraham Maslow said, "If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail." Academically known as the "Maslow's Hammer"—people tend to interpret everything with familiar tools, even when they are not applicable.

Currently, the situation is the opposite. The investment community's memory of the tech bubble is so deep that some start to see everything as a replay of 2000. But is that really the case?

Look at the data. After ChatGPT became popular, the forward P/E ratio of a leading chip stock actually dropped by 15 points. Meanwhile, its stock price increased tenfold. In other words— all the gains came from genuine improvements in fundamentals, with real increases in earnings per share. This is not retail traders following hype; it’s a substantial enhancement in the company's profitability.

Here's an even more interesting detail. On a certain social investment platform, the market sentiment indicator for this stock shows "bearish." The sentiment score is based on the bullish and bearish ratio of user comments over the past 24 hours. A stock that has increased tenfold in three years is still generally being bearish by investors. Doesn't this precisely indicate that the market is not overly enthusiastic?

So, sometimes, putting down that hammer and looking directly at the data reveals that panic and frenzy are often twin brothers. The key is not to be hijacked by cognitive biases.