2025 Gold Price Layout Guide: Is There Still Room for Gold to Rise?

The gold market has become a global investment hotspot in 2024–2025. After a correction following the historical high in October, many investors are caught in a dilemma: Should I enter the market now to buy gold? What will be the trend of gold prices in 2025? Understanding the underlying logic driving gold行情 is essential to make wiser judgments.

Why has XAU/USD become a focus?

According to Reuters data, the increase in gold in 2024–2025 is close to the highest in 30 years, surpassing 31% in 2007 and 29% in 2010. This rally is not accidental but driven by multiple factors stacking up.

The three core factors pushing gold prices higher

Factor 1: Safe-haven demand driven by policy uncertainty

Since Trump’s policy cycle began, a series of tariff measures have triggered market expectation changes. Based on historical experience (such as the US-China trade war in 2018), gold prices typically see a short-term surge of 5–10% during periods of policy uncertainty. When market risk aversion heats up, gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, becomes more attractive.

Factor 2: Expectations of Fed rate cuts and declining real interest rates

The Federal Reserve’s rate cut policies have a key impact on gold prices. Lowering interest rates weakens the dollar, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Historical observations show that gold prices have a clear negative correlation with real interest rates—the lower the rates, the more attractive gold becomes.

Currently, market expectations for a 25 bps rate cut at the December Fed meeting stand at 84.7%. Investors can monitor rate cut expectations through CME interest rate tools as a logical basis for judging gold price trends. Notably, after the September FOMC meeting, gold prices actually declined because the expected rate cut was already priced in, and Powell did not hint at continued rate cuts in the future, leading to increased market caution.

Factor 3: Continued accumulation of gold reserves by global central banks

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), net gold purchases by central banks in Q3 2025 reached 220 tons, a 28% increase from the previous quarter. In the first nine months of 2025, central banks accumulated about 634 tons of gold, far exceeding other periods.

In the central bank gold reserve survey published by the WGC, 76% of respondents believe that the proportion of gold will be “moderately or significantly increased” over the next five years, while most expect the “US dollar reserve ratio” to decline. This reflects a deep change in the global financial landscape—gold’s role as a “trustworthy” reserve asset is becoming more solidified.

Other driving factors and long-term support

Global high debt environment

By 2025, global debt will reach $307 trillion. High debt levels limit countries’ interest rate policy flexibility, making monetary policy more likely to favor easing, further lowering real interest rates and indirectly boosting gold attractiveness.

Erosion of confidence in the US dollar

When the dollar weakens or market confidence declines, gold priced in dollars benefits, attracting more capital inflows.

Persistent geopolitical risks

Events like the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts continue to boost safe-haven demand for precious metals, which can cause short-term volatility.

Media and social sentiment

Continuous reporting and social interactions can amplify emotions, leading to a flood of short-term capital inflows and intensifying price surges. However, volatility caused by these factors does not indicate a sustained long-term trend.

Mainstream institutions’ forecasts for 2025–2026 gold prices

Despite recent fluctuations, many top institutions remain optimistic about gold’s outlook:

• JPMorgan Commodity Team: views the correction as a “healthy adjustment,” raising the Q4 2026 target price to $5055 per ounce
• Goldman Sachs: reiterates the end-2026 target of $4900 per ounce
• Bank of America: raises the 2026 target to $5000, with expectations that gold could even hit $6000 next year

Additionally, well-known jewelry brands like Chow Tai Fook, Luk Fook Jewelry, Chow Sang Sang, and Chow Tai Seng in mainland China still have reference prices for pure gold jewelry above 1100 RMB/gram, with no significant decline, indirectly confirming industry confidence in gold prices.

How should ordinary investors approach buying gold?

After understanding the logic behind gold price increases, the key is to find a strategy that suits you. The current gold行情 has not ended, but the approach should vary by individual.

Short-term traders

If you have some trading experience, volatile行情 can offer frequent buying and selling opportunities. Market liquidity is ample, and the direction of rise or fall is relatively easier to judge, especially during sharp surges or drops, where bullish and bearish forces are clear. Using economic calendars to track US economic data can assist in trading decisions.

New investors

If you want to seize recent volatility, discipline is essential: start with small amounts to test the waters, and avoid blindly increasing positions. A poor mindset is one of the main reasons for losses.

Long-term holders

If you plan to buy physical gold for long-term storage, be mentally prepared—short-term fluctuations can be significant. Gold’s annual average volatility is 19.4% (higher than the S&P 500’s 14.7%), with a very long cycle; it can double in ten years or be halved. Also, note that transaction costs for physical gold are generally between 5%–20%.

Portfolio allocators

Including gold in your asset allocation is feasible, but don’t put all your wealth into it. Gold’s volatility is not lower than stocks; diversification and controlling your gold exposure within a reasonable proportion of your overall portfolio are recommended.

Combining stability and aggressiveness

Experienced investors can hold long-term while also capitalizing on price fluctuations for short-term trading, especially when volatility expands around US data releases. However, this requires solid experience and risk management skills.

Final reminder

Gold price volatility is not less than stocks, and its cyclical features are obvious, requiring patience and discipline. During US economic data releases and Fed meetings, volatility risks are particularly high. Regardless of the strategy chosen, avoid blindly following the crowd—deeply understanding market logic is the key to winning in gold trading.