December 25, 2025 SOL Christmas Technical Analysis (12:00, UTC+8)

• Current Price: around 123.2. During the Christmas holiday, liquidity is extremely low, with BTC/ETH moving in a narrow range. Contract deleveraging and concentrated chips increase the risk of sharp price movements.

• Core Judgment: Daily chart shows a slight bearish oscillation; 4H/2H lack clear direction. Focus on range-bound buying low and selling high, with total positions ≤30%. Switch to trend strategies only after a volume breakout.

🎯 Key Price Levels (USD, layered precision)

• Support: 122.0 (intraday strong support) → 121.0 (life line for bulls and bears) → 120.0 (psychological/breakout acceleration) → 118.5 (strong support zone)

• Resistance: 124.5 (intraday strong resistance) → 125.5 (neckline level) → 127.0 (psychological strong resistance) → 128.5 (trend dividing line)

📊 Multi-timeframe Indicators

• Daily: 20/50 moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, price below the averages; MACD negative zone, RSI≈41, no obvious divergence; declining volume, weak oscillation.

• 4H: Bollinger Bands narrowing, price near middle band; KDJ at low levels flattening, MACD near zero line, indicating oscillation; low volume, no clear direction.

• 2H: Short-term moving averages intertwined, MACD repeatedly near zero line, signals for quick entry and exit; suitable for rapid range switching.

🔗 On-chain and Capital Surface

• Exchange SOL holdings are low, circulating chips are concentrated; perpetual contract open interest shrinks, market deleveraging accelerates, volume reduction increases risk of sharp movements.

• Christmas global liquidity is drying up, large orders may trigger price jumps; market orders are disabled.

⚙ Trading Strategy (Actionable + Risk Control)

1. Range Trading (total positions ≤30%, stop-loss per trade ≤2%)

◦ Long: 122.0-122.5 with light position, stop-loss at 121.2, target 124.0-124.5; reduce position by 50% at target 1, move remaining stop-loss to cost basis at 125.5.

◦ Short: 124.5-125.0 with light position, stop-loss at 125.8, target 123.0-123.5; reduce position by 50% at target 1, move remaining stop-loss to cost basis at 122.0.

2. Breakout Strategy (volume increase + 1H close confirmation)

◦ Long chase: volume surge past 125.8, retest 125.2, chase long, stop-loss at 124.0, target 126.5-127.5.

◦ Short chase: volume drop below 121.2, rebound to 121.5, chase short, stop-loss at 122.2, target 120.0-119.0.

3. Risk Control Rule: Use only limit orders or breakout orders; avoid heavy overnight positions during low volume; monitor this Friday’s $24 billion options settlement, which may trigger increased volatility.

⚠ Key Reminders

• If 121.0 is broken, expect rapid decline to 120.0-118.5; if volume surges past 127.0, space opens up to 128.5-130.0.

• Whale movements may trigger localized volatility; real-time volume should be considered for judgment.