Oro: twenty years of appreciation and why it remains key in your portfolio

A metal that multiplied by ten

As of October 2025, spot gold hovers around $4,270 per ounce. To put it into perspective: two decades ago, it was just $430. This means its price has increased by more than ten times in twenty years, an accumulated growth close to 900% that few investments can match.

The figure is even more impressive when compared to more recent moments. In 2015, the metal traded around $1,100 per ounce. Ten years later, it has reached successive all-time highs. Between 2020 and 2025, it accumulated a rise of +124% in just five years, going from $1,900 to over $4,200 per ounce.

Over the last decade, annualized returns have remained between 7% and 8% per year, a remarkable figure considering it is an asset with no dividends or implicit interest. Even more relevant: in the last five years, it has outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, something uncommon over such extended periods.

The four key periods that explain this evolution

The evolution of gold prices over two decades can be segmented into four well-differentiated phases, each with its own dynamics.

2005-2010: when gold became a safe haven

During these years, it experienced one of the most vigorous revaluations in its modern history. The weakening of the dollar, rising oil prices, and distrust in financial assets after the subprime mortgage crisis were the main drivers. The metal went from $430 to surpass $1,200 per ounce in just five years.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 accelerated this movement. Central banks and financial institutions began to buy gold massively as a guarantee of stability.

2010-2015: tactical stagnation

After the initial impact of the crisis, markets stabilized. The recovery of developed economies and the start of U.S. monetary normalization reduced the metal’s relative appeal. During this five-year period, it fluctuated between $1,000 and $1,200 per ounce. It was a technical correction, not structural: gold continued fulfilling its role as a hedge, albeit without generating extraordinary gains.

2015-2020: the resurgence

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China, the increase in global public debt, and the historic lows in interest rates revitalized demand. 2020 was the turning point: the pandemic acted as a catalyst, and gold surpassed $2,000 for the first time, definitively cementing its status as a trusted asset in times of crisis.

2020-2025: the extraordinary climb

The most recent five-year period marked the greatest nominal revaluation. From $1,900, it jumped to over $4,200, an increase of +124% in five years. This movement reflects a combination of negative real interest rates, persistent inflation, dollar weakness, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Comparison with major stock indices

The accumulated return metric offers a revealing contrast. The Nasdaq-100 remains the best performer since 2005, with gains exceeding 5,000%. The S&P 500 is close to 800%. Gold has accumulated approximately +850% since 2005 in nominal terms.

However, the most interesting results occur over shorter timeframes. In the last five years, the metal has accumulated +295% in nominal terms (7% to 8% annualized), outperforming both U.S. indices. This performance is especially notable in a context of high inflation and interest rate cuts.

Another crucial aspect is the risk profile. In 2008, when stocks fell more than 30%, gold barely declined by 2%. In 2020, when uncertainty paralyzed markets, it again acted as a volatility buffer.

What factors truly drive the price of gold

The behavior of the metal over twenty years obeys well-identified economic and psychological dynamics:

Negative real interest rates: Gold appreciates when the real yield on bonds (nominal rates minus inflation) falls below zero. The quantitative easing policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank created this condition persistently, boosting demand for the metal.

The US dollar: Since gold is traded in dollars, a weak currency tends to push up its price. The dollar’s depreciation post-2020 coincided with the main upward phases of the metal.

Inflation and expansionary fiscal policies: Massive public spending programs during the pandemic rekindled inflation fears. Investors seek to protect their purchasing power in these contexts, and gold is the traditional instrument for doing so.

Geopolitical tensions and institutional distrust: Conflicts, trade sanctions, and changes in energy policies have acted as catalysts. Central banks of emerging economies have increased their gold reserves as a diversification strategy and to reduce dependence on the dollar.

How to incorporate gold into your investment strategy

Gold should not be viewed as a speculative asset but as a structural component of a balanced portfolio. Its main function is to preserve real value against unexpected shocks, not to generate extraordinary returns.

Financial managers typically recommend an exposure of between 5% and 10% of total assets, whether in physical gold, ETFs backed by metal, or replication funds. In highly equity-exposed portfolios, this percentage acts as an insurance policy against extreme volatility.

A key advantage of gold is its immediate universal liquidity. It can be converted into cash in any market and at any time without capital restrictions or sovereign debt fluctuations. In environments of financial tension, this attribute becomes especially relevant.

Conclusion: why gold will continue to be relevant

The evolution of gold prices over two decades is not an arbitrary phenomenon. It responds to cycles of institutional confidence: when this erodes due to inflation, debt, political instability, or conflicts, the metal returns to the center stage.

In the last decade, it has competed head-to-head with major stock indices. In the last five years, it has outperformed them. This is no coincidence: investors seek stability in a context where it is increasingly scarce.

Gold does not promise quick wealth nor does it replace business growth. It is a silent hedge that revalues precisely when other assets falter. For those building a resilient portfolio, it remains today, as twenty years ago, an indispensable piece of the global financial puzzle.