The Christmas Effect is just a catalyst; the key still lies in capital logic.

Every year at the end of the year, the "Christmas market" is repeatedly mentioned, but what truly drives the market is not the holiday itself, but changes in capital behavior. This week's market rebound largely stems from the short-term release of risk asset pressure and some funds提前布局跨年行情. From this perspective, the pre-holiday sentiment is merely a catalyst, not the fundamental reason.

It is worth noting that in this round of rebound, Bitcoin and Ethereum performed relatively restrained, without emotional out-of-control surges, which is a healthy sign. It indicates that the market has not entered a frenzy stage but is seeking a new balance range. If this were purely emotional recovery, rebounds would often be rapid and chaotic; currently, the trend is more inclined towards a "slow bottoming."

Of course, this does not mean that a new major trend has been confirmed. The true trend initiation is often accompanied by continuous capital inflows, pullbacks that do not break key support levels, and gradually strengthening market consensus. Before these signals fully appear, viewing the current rebound as a "trial run of the market" may be more rational.

Strategically, rather than worrying about whether this is the starting point, it’s better to go with the flow, control positions, and筛选真正有资金承接的标的 during pullbacks.