Recently, the offshore RMB hit a 14-month high, and it’s on the verge of breaking 7. If this momentum continues, returning to the 6 range is not a dream. Meanwhile, the US dollar index fell below 98, making the comparison very clear — the dollar is entering a depreciation mode, and the RMB is entering an appreciation cycle.

Some predict that the RMB will gradually rise to around 6.0 over the next 10 years. I think this estimate is a bit conservative; it might break 6 in just 3 to 4 years.

Historically, RMB appreciation is often accompanied by a strong Hong Kong stock market, and core assets in A-shares will also benefit. But recently, the Hong Kong market has been very weak, and high-quality A-share companies haven't risen much, which is quite confusing. Why haven’t foreign investors heavily entered to buy Chinese core assets? That’s a complex question, and it’s hard to give a clear answer right now.

But in the long term, currency appreciation puts pressure on export companies but benefits import businesses; it’s good for individuals traveling abroad; and for the big A-shares, it’s a medium- to long-term positive signal.

Speaking of the crypto world, friends have indeed had a tough year. Investors holding U tokens have also experienced depreciation, and many feel frustrated. But don’t be too pessimistic — prices are likely to rebound, it’s just a matter of time. This phase should be seen as a test of patience.