Is Ada(ADA) about to break resistance? Whale fund inflows and technical signals align

Currently, ADA is approaching an inflection point near $0.36. Despite a 1.78% decline over the past 24 hours indicating a bearish trend, a comprehensive analysis of chart patterns and market sentiment suggests that conditions are favorable for a short-term rebound. Especially as institutional funds and technical breakout signals appear simultaneously, many analysts are increasingly betting on the possibility of retaking the $0.49 resistance level.

Signals from the Chart: A Classic Bullish Reversal

From a technical analysis perspective, the most notable point is that ADA has already broken above the Falling Wedge( pattern’s upper boundary. This pattern is a classic bullish reversal signal, indicating that the price level which previously acted as support is now turning into resistance, entering a ‘retest)’ phase.

Supporting indicators also point in the same direction. The RSI is currently at 43, below the 50 line, but has been steadily rising from lows, reflecting a reduction in selling pressure. An even stronger signal is that the MACD has already completed a golden cross, confirming that a short-term upward trend is technically established.

Whale Movements Hold the Key

On-chain data confirms that this is not just a technical recovery but a shift in capital inflow. Looking at recent movements since December 2:

• Small to mid-sized whales( holding 1 million to 10 million ADA): net sell of about 9 million ADA → market exit
• Mega whales( holding 10 million to 100 million ADA): net buy of 160 million ADA → accumulation at low prices

This is not merely a rotation of holdings but a typical cycle of ‘weak hands being wiped out, strong hands entering’. Such on-chain signals are often seen as precursors to bottom formation.

Futures Market: Buy Positions Dominate

According to CoinGlass data, ADA’s funding rate has turned positive(+) since Monday, currently holding at 0.0074%. Positive funding indicates that long position holders are paying fees to shorters, suggesting that bullish sentiment is driving the market.

CryptoQuant data also points to a dominance of large buy orders( in both spot and futures markets), indicating a psychological shift is underway and becoming a reality.

Path and Risks

The short-term trading outlook is clear. If ADA maintains support at $0.43 and breaks through the resistance at $0.49, a trend reversal and upward movement are highly likely.

However, caution is advised. If the RSI fails to break above 50 and turns downward, a retracement to the December 1 low of $0.37 could occur. Therefore, the support level at this price range will be a key point for managing short-term positions.