2025-12-24 23:22:52

On-chain funds do not deceive. Last night's sharp rise and fall was actually a market wake-up call to the illusion of prosperity.

As an analyst who has been tracking the market for years, I witnessed a classic move last night: after the non-farm payrolls data was released, Bitcoin instantly surged 3000 points, then reversed and plummeted 4000 points. A typical bull trap script.

A large number of retail investors followed the hype of "unexpectedly high new employment" headlines to chase the rally, but there's more to it than meets the eye. Behind the seemingly impressive data, there are actually a bunch of contradictions.

**The Numbers Game of the Non-Farm Payroll Report**

The increase in new employment exceeding expectations—this is the favorite material for clickbait headlines. But the problem is, the unemployment rate did not decrease; it actually rose to a recent high. How to explain this?

The key factor is large-scale layoffs by the federal government. Government departments cut a large number of jobs, which directly distorted the data. The real situation is that job growth in the private sector is actually quite weak.

Looking at the root cause of the rising unemployment rate—more job seekers re-entering the labor market, and the labor force participation rate increasing. In other words, the data reflects not an improvement in employment, but the complex changes in the job market. Smart money sees through this logic instantly.

The market's reaction is the most honest. The crash is the answer.

**The Fed's Rate Cut Trap**

The market is frantically speculating on the Fed's rate cut expectations, but this could be a "hawkish rate cut" trap—cutting interest rates but suppressing rate cut expectations. The Fed is very experienced with this kind of operation.

BTC0.32%

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OnchainSniper

· 11h ago

Got cut again? Those who entered last night are all noobs now.

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LightningPacketLoss

· 11h ago

Is it the same old story again, chasing after pretty data? Wake up, buddy, the market is a scam, and the wallet is the most honest. Smart money has already run away, retail investors are the ones still picking up the bag. Tsk, non-farm payrolls, that thing is a joke. The surface numbers look good, but behind the scenes, it's all traps. By the way, do you really believe the Fed's hawkish rate cuts? I just watch. A hand of cards should have the awareness of a hand of cards. This lesson is not cheap.

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NFT_Therapy_Group

· 11h ago

Once again, the same data magic, retail investors' orders are truly impressive. --- A sharp decline is the real story; those chasing the rally should have reflected long ago. --- The Federal Reserve's move was really clever; who can see through the hawkish rate cuts? --- On-chain is where the real test lies; all talk is just empty. --- I just want to know how many more leek farmers need to be cut. --- Knowing through it doesn't help; the liquidity situation is right there. --- It's a classic case of "black under the lamp"; taking surface data at face value means losing. --- Even government layoffs are seen as good news; this market is really interesting. --- That move last night was very clear to me; it was a bull trap. --- Rising labor participation rate? They really dare to make up stories. --- Speculating on rate cuts like this, next month will have a different story. --- Feels like every time it's smart money doing the shakeout, retail investors are the bagholders. --- Non-farm payrolls have long lost their reference value.

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HashBard

· 11h ago

nah fr, the nonfarm numbers are just kabuki theater at this point. smart money always wins the narrative game eventually.

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MetaverseVagabond

· 12h ago

It's the same old trick again, tired of the bull trap and still playing, retail investors just love to be harvested. --- I also watched that non-farm payroll data wave, it’s too classic, clickbait headlines always win. --- Unemployment rate hits a new high, employment exceeds expectations, this logic is full of flaws, smart money has already run away. --- The Federal Reserve’s hawkish rate cut playbook, I’ve seen through it long ago, whether they cut or not is all just a routine. --- On-chain data doesn’t lie, last night’s crash proves everything, retail investors are still taking the bait. --- Haha, here comes another bull trap, what non-farm payroll exceeding expectations, it’s just a numbers game. --- Government layoffs distort data, private sector jobs show slight growth, these details are hidden by big influencers. --- The market’s most honest reaction is a crash, but unfortunately most people don’t understand.

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