The Federal Reserve's dovish remarks sparked market imagination, with both Crypto and US stocks rallying. Bitcoin broke through $87,000, and China's bailout expectations became a global focus.

The consecutive statements from Federal Reserve officials on Friday injected a strong dose of confidence into the market. New York Fed President Williams hinted at the possibility of another rate cut in December, while Vice Chair Jefferson eased market concerns about an AI bubble. The voices of these two “doves” quickly reversed market sentiment. Driven by these policy expectations, Bitcoin’s 24-hour increase reached 0.63%, currently stabilizing above $87,960; Ethereum is at $2,960, down 0.06%; the three major US stock indices rebounded across the board, with the Dow up 1.08%, the S&P 500 up 0.98%, and the Nasdaq up 0.88%.

Federal Reserve Officials Take Turns Supporting, December Rate Cut Expectations Reignite

Williams emphasized in his speech that, due to a softening labor market, the downside risk to employment has increased, while inflationary pressures are easing. He pointed out that, in the absence of new tariff shocks, core inflation continues its downward trend, leaving room for the Fed to cut rates again in the near future. Based on this judgment, traders’ bets on a rate cut in December have risen to over 50%.

More notably, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled the scheduled release of the October CPI report on November 7, rescheduling the November CPI data to be released on December 18; non-farm employment data has also been postponed to December 16. This means that the Federal Reserve’s meeting (December 9-10) will proceed without these key economic data, making market expectations for rate cuts more optimistic.

Vice Chair Jefferson also sought to dispel concerns about an AI bubble burst. He stated that the current AI-related companies are very different from the internet bubble of the 1990s—today’s AI firms are more mature, with real profitability, and are not heavily reliant on debt financing as they were back then. The financial system remains robust and resilient. Once market sentiment reverses, limited leverage use can also reduce the transmission risk to the real economy.

Market Sentiment Reverses, Bitcoin Nearly Holds $80,000

The dovish comments from Fed officials directly boosted the appeal of risk assets. The VIX fear index fell sharply by 11.32%, and Bitcoin recovered most of its intraday decline. As of November 24, Bitcoin is at $87,960, firmly above the $80,000 level; Ethereum slightly declined to $2,960.

However, the market is not smooth sailing. According to data from EPFR Global cited by U.S. banks, cryptocurrency funds experienced a record outflow of up to $2.2 billion in the week ending November 19. This reflects that, despite positive signals from the Fed, investor confidence in the crypto market remains deeply concerned. Meanwhile, gold hovers around $4,060, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dipped to 4.06%.

US Stocks Rebound Across the Board, Tech Stocks Show Divergence

Supported by the Fed’s dovish tone, the three major US stock indices rose collectively. The Dow increased by 1.08%, the S&P 500 by 0.98%, and the Nasdaq by 0.88%. The China Golden Dragon Index rebounded 1.23%, indicating that global investors are beginning to pay attention to the opportunities that China’s rescue policies might bring.

Tech stocks showed mixed performance. Nvidia fell 4.3 intraday but closed down 1%; Oracle declined even more sharply by 5.7%; Tesla dropped 1.05%. However, Google rose over 3%, Apple increased by 1.97%, and Merck gained 2.9%, reflecting more differentiated views on specific companies.

Consumer Confidence Hits Historic Low, Inflation Expectations Easing

The latest survey from the University of Michigan showed that the final November consumer confidence index fell to 51, well below October’s 53.6, hitting a new historic low. The current conditions index dropped 7.5 points to 51.1, and consumers’ expectations for personal financial conditions fell to the lowest since 2009.

Survey Director Joanne Hsu said that consumers are frustrated with persistent high prices and shrinking incomes. The record government shutdown has disrupted food assistance and air travel, affecting federal employees’ pay. The only good news is that consumers expect the annual inflation rate over the next year to be 4.5%, a third consecutive month of decline; five- to ten-year inflation expectations fell to 3.4%, below October’s 3.9%. Despite this, consumers remain worried about employment security, with personal unemployment probabilities rising to the highest since July 2020.

Global Political and Economic Intertwining, China’s Rescue Expectations Become Key Variable

Trump proposed the “28-point plan” to Ukraine, urging Kyiv to cede territory and abandon NATO ambitions, aiming to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict before winter. Putin stated that U.S. plans could form the basis for a final resolution but accused Kyiv and its European allies of misunderstanding Russia’s actual progress in Ukraine.

A member of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, Amamiya, indicated that the central bank is close to making an interest rate hike decision and will not wait until the spring wage negotiations next year. The policy rate remains at 0.5%, still below the neutral level, and the real borrowing cost adjusted for inflation remains deeply negative, making a rate hike imminent. Meanwhile, Japan’s Cabinet approved a stimulus package totaling 21.3 trillion yen, covering price subsidies and investments in key areas.

Notably, global investors are beginning to expect that China’s rescue policies will further boost Asian markets. The 1.23% rise in the China Golden Dragon Index reflects market expectations for policy support from China, which could become an important variable driving global risk assets in the coming weeks.

Company Dynamics and Market Trends

The Trump administration is considering approval for the sale of Nvidia H200 AI chips to China, with the Commerce Department reviewing related bans. This move suggests a more friendly U.S. policy toward China. AstraZeneca announced a $2 billion investment to expand its Maryland manufacturing base, creating 2,600 jobs. Google launched a new AI tool, BigQuery, combining machine learning features with other AI capabilities to further promote generative AI applications in data processing.

In commodities, gold fell 0.29% to $4,064 per ounce; WTI crude oil declined for the third consecutive day to $57.9 per barrel, down 1.33%. The U.S. dollar index slightly decreased by 0.02% to 100.2. In the forex market, USD/JPY fell 0.67%, EUR/USD declined 0.13%.

In Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng night futures closed at 25,541 points, up 308 points, with a premium of 321 points; the China Enterprises Index night futures closed at 9,035 points.

Next market focus will be on key economic data such as Germany’s November IFO Business Climate Index, Canada’s National Economic Confidence Index, and the U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index. Under the dual influence of China’s rescue expectations and the Fed’s policy shift, whether global risk assets can continue their rebound remains to be seen.