XAU/USD Climbs Toward $4,110 as Markets Await Delayed September Employment Data

Gold’s Push Higher Amid Fed Uncertainty

The XAU/USD pair has extended its rally toward the $4,110 mark during Thursday’s early Asian trading session. This upward movement reflects growing caution among investors as they grapple with economic headwinds and shifting expectations around monetary policy. The precious metal’s strength comes as traders position themselves ahead of critical economic data releases.

The NFP Report: A Game Changer for Gold

A 43-day government shutdown has delayed the release of September’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data—a report that typically moves markets significantly. Now that the jobs report is finally on the horizon, it has become the focal point for traders and investors alike. The delay has created additional uncertainty about the true health of the US labor market, which in turn has supported safe-haven assets like gold.

If the employment figures disappoint expectations, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December could spike, potentially pushing gold prices higher. Weaker employment data would reduce the appeal of holding US dollars, supporting the non-yielding asset. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected report would likely dampen rate-cut bets and pressure the yellow metal lower.

Fed Officials Split on Next Moves

Recent minutes from the October 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting reveal a central bank at a crossroads. While the Fed did approve a 25 basis point rate reduction, the decision was far from unanimous—some policymakers actually opposed a further cut in December. This internal division has created confusion in the markets about what comes next.

The CME FedWatch tool captures this uncertainty perfectly: as of now, markets are pricing in just a 30% probability of another Fed rate cut next month, a sharp drop from the 60% odds seen just a week earlier. This dramatic shift underscores the market’s reassessment of the economic landscape.

What It Means for Gold Traders

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making price appreciation more likely. Higher rates work the opposite way—they boost the dollar and reduce gold’s appeal. With Fed guidance becoming increasingly muddled and employment data now front and center, volatility in the XAU/USD pair could accelerate in the sessions ahead.

Traders watching this market should keep their eye on two key factors: the quality of the NFP print on Thursday, and any subsequent commentary from Fed officials that might clarify their true intentions for December’s policy decision.