"The big picture is unknown, but funds are essential"... The skill of choice emphasized by Bitwise

The Market Is Growing, But Why Do We Keep Getting the Picks Wrong?

The question posed by Matt Hugen, Chief Investment Officer of global asset management firm Bitwise, has become a hot topic. While it’s almost certain that the virtual asset market will grow by 10x or 20x, his assessment is that “which coin will be the final winner is an entirely separate matter.”

Why is it so difficult to pick individual assets? Because dozens of variables are intertwined—rapidly changing regulatory environments, project team execution capabilities, macroeconomic trends, and even luck(—making it a realm that “requires supernatural levels of insight,” according to Hugen.

Even a 100,000x Market Can Have a Disastrous Outcome

There’s an interesting point. According to a scenario mentioned by the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission)SEC(, the digital asset market could theoretically grow to 100,000x)100,000x(.

But here’s the trap. Even if the market becomes that large, what if investors hold onto the wrong coins? They would miss out on the enormous growth benefits. They might have correctly predicted the market direction but still fall into the risk of “coincidental victory” due to poor asset selection.

This isn’t to say “don’t do funds,” but rather, it’s a signal to choose the right funds.

Beta Strategy: “I Buy the Entire Market”

Hugen’s solution is straightforward. Instead of chasing alpha)Alpha( by aiming for a big win with a specific coin, it’s better to build a portfolio that follows the overall upward trend of the market—centered on beta)Beta(.

“My approach is simple. I buy the entire market.”

He explained that he focuses his investment weight on market-cap-weighted index funds. This strategy reduces individual risks while riding the overall upward trajectory of the cryptocurrency asset class.

The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF)BITW( listed on the NYSE Arca)NYSE Arca( is based on this philosophy. BITW baskets the top 10 high-quality cryptocurrencies by market cap, including proven major assets like Bitcoin)BTC(, Ethereum)ETH(, Ripple)XRP(, Solana)SOL(.

In an Era of Regulatory Relaxation, Survival Strategies Change

Ultimately, Hugen’s message reflects the current market situation. During times when regulatory environments improve and institutional funds flow in, index investing that covers the entire top-tier asset spectrum is the most practical response rather than a “probability game” of going all-in on individual assets.

While we can’t predict how big the market will become, it’s impossible to forecast who will win within it. Therefore, buying the whole market is inherently more rational than trying to pick individual winners.