Gold is on its way to $5,000... Will 2026 be the year of a new history?

Gold has experienced an incredible upward journey since the beginning of 2025, breaking the $4,300 per ounce barrier in October, raising serious questions about whether 2026 will see a leap toward $5,000. But the real question isn’t just about the rise, but about the factors driving this surge and the risks that could halt it.

Why Gold Now? The Factors Behind the Crazy Rise

Debt and Risks Open the Way for Safe Havens

Global public debt has surpassed 100% of GDP, an unprecedented figure that raises concerns among hedge funds and institutional investors. Bloomberg data shows that 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold positions in Q3 2025, seeking a safe haven amid financial chaos.

Meanwhile, yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell from 4.6% in Q1 to 4.07% by the end of November 2025, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold as a non-yielding asset. The dollar itself declined by 7.64% from its peak, opening the door for foreign investment in the precious metal.

Central Banks Buying Frenziedly

Global central banks continued their record-breaking purchases. The People’s Bank of China alone added over 65 tons in the first half of 2025, while Turkey increased its reserves to over 600 tons. Currently, 44% of central banks worldwide hold gold reserves, up from 37% in 2024.

The World Gold Council predicts these purchases will remain a key driver of demand through the end of 2026, especially from emerging markets trying to protect their currencies from exchange rate volatility.

Retail Investors Enter the Game

Striking data: 28% of new investors in developed markets added gold to their portfolios for the first time in 2024-2025. They weren’t professional investors but ordinary individuals discovering gold as an investment option.

Gold ETFs attracted massive inflows, pushing assets under management to $472 billion. Holdings reached 3,838 tons, very close to the all-time high of 3,929 tons.

Geopolitical Tensions: The Forgotten Catalyst

When tensions escalated in the Taiwan Strait in July 2025, gold jumped to $3,400. In October, as tensions renewed, it broke through $4,300.

Geopolitical uncertainty alone increased demand by 7% annually, according to Reuters. Trade disputes between the US and China, along with instability in the Middle East, made gold a strategic choice that cannot be ignored.

Monetary Policy: The Battle of Interest Rates

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October 2025 to 3.75-4.00%, the second cut since December 2024. Market expectations price in an additional 25 basis point cut in December 2025.

But most importantly: BlackRock forecasted that the Fed would target an interest rate of 3.4% by the end of 2026. This implies a weakening dollar and a continued decline in real yields, creating ideal conditions for gold.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank adopted a gradual tightening policy, while the Bank of Japan maintained its easing stance. This divergence created an ideal environment for gold as a global hedge.

Supply and Demand: The Gap Widens

Demand for gold in Q2 2025 reached 1,249 tons, a 3% annual increase. Value surged 45% to $132 billion. However, mine production was only 856 tons in the first quarter.

What worsens the situation? Recycled gold declined by 1%, as owners prefer to hold onto their gold pieces expecting continued price increases. The demand-supply gap is widening, signaling further upside.

Global extraction costs also rose to $1,470 per ounce, the highest in a decade. This means any increase in production will be slow and costly.

2026 Outlook: Where Do Analysts See Gold?

Major Banks Are Optimistic

• HSBC: $5,000 in the first half of 2026, with an average of $4,600 during the year
• Bank of America: $5,000 as a potential peak, average $4,400
• Goldman Sachs: $4,900 per ounce
• J.P. Morgan: $5,055 by mid-2026

Most Probable Range: $4,800–$5,000 as a peak, with an average between $4,200–$4,800.

But There Are Warnings

HSBC pointed out that momentum could weaken in the second half of 2026, with a correction possibly down to $4,200 if investors start taking profits. However, they ruled out a drop below $3,800 unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs warned of a “price credibility test”: if prices stay above $4,800, the market may test gold’s ability to sustain these levels amid weak industrial demand.

Will Gold Fall in 2026? The Answer Is Complex

If real yields continue to decline and the dollar remains weak, gold is poised to hit new all-time highs possibly exceeding $5,000. But if inflation recedes quickly and market confidence returns, the metal could enter a long-term stabilization phase.

Major investors have placed their bets. Central banks are buying. Debt levels are rising. Money flows into gold funds. All these factors suggest that gold’s bullish story is not over yet.

In the Middle East: Local Figures

Egypt: Gold price forecasts indicate reaching around 522,580 Egyptian pounds per ounce, a 158% increase over current prices.

Saudi Arabia and UAE: If gold reaches $5,000 as major banks forecast, it could translate to approximately 18,750–19,000 SAR, and 18,375–19,000 AED per ounce (assuming exchange rates remain stable).

But these estimates remain approximate and depend on exchange rate stability and continued global demand.

Technical Analysis: Where Is Gold Now?

Gold closed trading on November 21, 2025, at $4,065 per ounce, after touching $4,381 on October 20. It broke the upward channel line but still holds the short- to medium-term main trend line.

Strong Support: $4,000
Resistances: $4,200 (First strong resistance), then $4,400 and $4,680

The RSI indicator settled at 50 (Neutral), while MACD remains above zero (Bullish trend). The forecast: trading in the $4,000–$4,220 range in the near term, with the overall picture remaining positive.

How to Benefit from These Movements

Options include buying physical gold bars, investing in gold ETFs, or purchasing mining stocks. For traders aiming to speculate on short-term movements, CFDs offer an opportunity to profit from volatility.

Important Note: CFDs involve significant risks and potential rewards. Choose a trusted broker with fast execution, dynamic charts, up-to-date economic calendars, plus strong customer support and professional training.

Summary: 2026 Will Be the Year of Decision

As the cycle of monetary tightening nears its end and the global economy enters a slowdown phase, the market will face a battle between profit-taking and new buying waves from central banks and investors.

If real yields keep declining and the dollar remains weak, gold is likely to reach new record levels, possibly surpassing $5,000. But if market confidence quickly recovers, we may see a long-term stabilization instead of the explosive rise expected.

Current data points to the first scenario. But markets are full of surprises.