BNB $844 is a 'breakpoint'... Simultaneous deterioration of technical and data signals strengthens downward pressure

Current Situation: BNB is Bearish Below $855

As of Tuesday, BNB is trading around $847.30, continuing a weak trend. Yesterday’s correction is not just a simple retracement; technical indicators and on-chain data are simultaneously signaling deterioration, further cooling market sentiment.

Three Signals Traders Must Watch

1. Futures Market: Increased Retail Trading + Selling Dominance

Looking at futures market data, the (Futures Average Order Size) has increased. This indicates that retail small trades are rising relative to large institutional transactions, which is generally negative for price stability.

Additionally, the taker CVD shows a market-wide sell execution that is outweighing buy orders. This suggests that even if there is an attempt at a price rebound, downward pressure is likely to persist.

2. Funding Rate: Transition to Negative Completed

BNB has shifted to negative funding since Monday, recording -0.006% on Tuesday. The dominance of short positions indicates a “bearish betting” sentiment, and historical cases show sharp declines following this signal, raising trader caution.

3. Technical Indicators: RSI Weakening + MACD Convergence

The daily RSI is at 39, continuing to decline below the neutral line, indicating increased selling pressure. The MACD lines are converging, raising the possibility of a bearish crossover. If confirmed, this crossover could be interpreted as a “downward acceleration” signal.

Price Analysis: Breaking Below the $844 ‘Support’ is Key

Technically, BNB has been under continued weakness from the downtrend line formed since mid-October. Currently trading around $853, the signal for trend reversal remains weak.

The most critical juncture is the daily close at $844.

• If it breaks below $844: An additional decline toward the weekly support at $709.29 could open up.
• Rebound scenario: The first resistance is the 50-day EMA at $923.14. Breaking through and holding above this level could weaken the short-term bearish case.

Summary: Why This Drop Is Different

Unlike past corrections, signals from technicals, funding, and retail dominance are all pointing to weakness simultaneously. This indicates that the market sentiment as a whole is deteriorating, not just a technical correction. Whether the $844 support holds will likely determine the future direction.