Can the surge in cryptocurrency prices continue? Bitcoin at $80,000 becomes the dividing line between bulls and bears

Since November, Bitcoin has experienced a rapid rebound after a sharp decline. From a seven-month low of $80,537 on November 21 to a recovery to $87,874 on November 24, this rebound has attracted widespread market attention. According to the latest data, BTC is currently fluctuating around 87.04K, with a 24-hour decline of -0.30%.

Regarding the driving factors behind this cycle of rise and fall, market opinions vary significantly. Macro economist Lyn Alden believes that the current cycle should not be overinterpreted as a traditional four-year halving theory—although the halving event did occur in April 2024, the true driver of this cycle stems from broader macroeconomic changes and market enthusiasm fluctuations toward cryptocurrencies themselves. From this perspective, the probability of a significant plunge is not as inevitable as historical experience suggests.

However, from a technical standpoint, the situation is more complex. Since reaching a historical high of 126.08K in early October, Bitcoin has declined by over 30%. Crypto trading indicator analysis platform CoinKarma points out that after losing key medium- and long-term levels, Bitcoin has endured strong selling pressure for several consecutive days, accelerating the downward trend. The turning point occurred on November 21—on that day, the daily close of BTC saw the highest recent volume across multiple spot trading platforms, indicating a significant shift in large holdings.

Analyst Banmu Xia interprets this as a typical short-term bottom confirmation signal, stating that “$80,500 can be basically considered an important low point in this bear market, and possibly the lowest point.” However, he also emphasizes that this does not mean the bear market has ended, only that the market may enter a sideways consolidation phase.

The current market focus centers on a key question: Can Bitcoin hold the $80,000 support line? If it fails, a new downward probe could be triggered. According to CryptoOnchain on-chain data, traders are most closely watching the support zone between $70,000 and $73,000. This area is not only technically significant but also, more importantly, on-chain data shows that this price range closely aligns with the average cost basis of large Bitcoin holders.

Historical patterns indicate that when market prices approach the average cost of large holders, they often add to their positions to defend the price, thereby building a solid support level. This is crucial for understanding subsequent trends. Meanwhile, macro positive signals are also accumulating—New York Fed President Williams recently hinted at continued rate cuts in December, with market bets on a December rate cut rising to 70%, which to some extent creates favorable conditions for a cryptocurrency price surge.

In the short term, Bitcoin has already shown signs of a rebound, but the medium-term trend still depends on whether it can effectively break through resistance. For cryptocurrency market participants, the performance of the key support zone at 70-73K will determine the next directional choice.