#美联储回购协议计划 $BTC $ETH Recently, the market has been weak, and there is a fundamental reason behind it: the US Q3 GDP growth rate exploded.

Last night, a major data release came—US Q3 real GDP annualized quarterly rate preliminary at 4.3%, far exceeding market expectations of 3.3%. When economic data is strong, the dollar also strengthens, and the market immediately adjusts its expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in January rose from market expectations of 87%, while the chance of a rate cut dropped directly to 13%. Once the news was out, the crypto market immediately came under pressure, and bullish sentiment clearly weakened.

Interestingly, Trump also spoke out, directly stating how urgent his need for a rate cut is, and even hinting that whether the Fed Chair can serve a second term depends on whether they are willing to cooperate with a rate cut. This leaves some room for imagination in the market, but for now, the market is still being influenced by economic data.

Looking at Bitcoin’s candlestick chart, last night was quite volatile. It rebounded from 86,500 in the early morning to 88,400, initially seeming like it was going to rise, but was forcibly pushed back to around 87,500 and started to consolidate. From the daily chart, the price is being tightly suppressed by the middle band, with Bollinger Bands flattening and short-term moving averages showing little strength, indicating a clear lack of momentum. The four-hour MACD is shrinking in volume and leaning bearish, while RSI remains in oversold territory. On the hourly chart, the Bollinger Band gap is very tight, and all moving averages are clustered together, essentially locking the market. In the short term, the expectation is for this low-range consolidation to continue, with no significant volatility. To break above, watch 88,400 (the four-hour middle band) and 89,500 (the daily middle band); support levels are at the early morning low of 86,500 and the lower daily band at 85,300.

Ethereum is also having a tough time. After touching 2900 in the early morning and rebounding, the 3000 level has become a ceiling again, and it is now hovering around 2960. The 3050 daily middle band remains the key resistance level, and the 3000 mark needs attention as well, as these two levels will be repeatedly contested. Looking downward, 2900 is a short-term support; if it breaks, the price could accelerate to test the 2850–2800 zone, which is the most critical support level to defend today.