Cryptocurrency Crash Worsens: Bitcoin Technical Deadlock Highlights, Institutional Confidence Shattered

Current Overview: Price Pressure and Liquidity Exhaustion

Since the Asian trading session this week, Bitcoin has remained under pressure around $87,180, down more than 30% from the all-time high of $126,080 set in June this year. According to the latest market data, BTC reached a high of $88,360 and a low of $86,600 in the past 24 hours, reflecting a severely constrained market with extremely limited upward and downward movement.

Behind this crypto crash, the shift in institutional investor sentiment is particularly evident. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw a net outflow of $523 million in a single day, setting a record since the fund’s inception, continuing a five-day streak of capital outflows. According to tracking data from Farside Investors, the ETF has experienced cumulative outflows of over $1.4 billion since last week, marking the largest consecutive outflows in 22 months.

Trader Sentiment: The Majority Bet on Decline

Market activity forecasts reflect a pessimistic outlook among participants. On prediction platforms like Myriad and Polymarket, traders overwhelmingly bet on a downward trend. Specifically, up to 73.3% of funds expect Bitcoin to fall to $85,000, while only 26.7% are betting on a rise to $115,000.

The situation is similarly bleak for Ethereum. Currently trading above $2,930, ETH has decreased by 0.68% in the past 24 hours. Market participants estimate a 62% probability that ETH will drop to $2,500, while the chance of rising to $4,000 is less than 40%. XRP and Solana, despite expectations of ETF listings, have not stopped their decline, falling 1.16% and 1.49% respectively over the past 24 hours.

Demand Exhaustion: Core Buying Has Quietly Disappeared

Market analysis from CryptoQuant indicates that the main drivers of this cycle are fading. Corporate crypto buying (such as continued purchases by MicroStrategy and other tech firms) has largely stalled. ETF accumulation rates have slowed significantly, and institutional strategic buying for the year has dropped to its lowest levels.

This is not a short-term technical correction but a structural demand decline. With the Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations waning and “economic uncertainty intensifying,” the crypto market faces a passive sell-off scenario. Zondacrypto CEO stated that Bitcoin “has further downside potential.”

Technical Outlook: Extremely Concerning

Death Cross Has Formed

Bitcoin’s 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) has officially fallen below the 200-day EMA, forming the so-called “Death Cross”—a classic long-term bearish signal. Currently, BTC price is well below both moving averages, creating a significant overhead resistance zone. Bulls need to regain these levels to establish a foundation for a rebound.

ADX Indicator Indicates Strong Downtrend

The Average Directional Index (ADX) has reached an extremely high level of 38.25 (above 35 indicates a very strong trend). This suggests that the current decline is not chaotic oscillation but a genuine and robust systemic sell-off. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index also shows “Extreme Fear,” further confirming worsening market sentiment.

RSI in Severe Oversold Territory

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 27.12, deep into oversold territory (<30). This indicates Bitcoin’s price has been “pushed to the limit,” though it does not necessarily mean an immediate bottom. Usually, this signals a trend exhaustion point, potentially leading to a strong rebound. If a rebound occurs, the price may retest support levels since June (now acting as resistance).

On-Chain Data: Retail Investors Exit, Leverage Liquidations

Glassnode data further reinforces a cautious market atmosphere. Short-term holders are realizing losses at the fastest rate since the FTX collapse. Bitcoin ETF inflows remain negative, and derivatives markets have shifted into risk-averse mode. Large options traders are heavily buying puts, with implied volatility rising sharply. All signs point to collective panic among market participants.

In this context, the average cost basis for active investors is around $88,600—this will become a critical level. If BTC continues to fall below this, active investors in this cycle will be in overall loss for the first time. Once this level is broken, bearish momentum will further dominate, with the next support around $82,000. Continued decline could transform this mild downtrend into a bear market structure similar to 2022–2023.

Key Price Level Predictions

Will $85,000 be reached?

From a technical perspective, the first Fibonacci support is around $84,451; stronger support is at $71,486. If BTC loses the current testing zone of $88,000–$89,000, there are few supports to prevent a direct drop to $85,000 or lower.

However, given the RSI is severely oversold, a drop to $85,000 is likely to be a quick wick rather than a sustained breakdown. This “capitulation drop” often cleans out leveraged longs before a rapid reversal.

Difficulty of Rising to $115,000

To realize an upward scenario, Bitcoin needs to recover from the Death Cross and break above the descending trendline (~$100,492). This is an extremely challenging task, which explains why traders’ bets on a rally are so scarce.

Support and Resistance Levels

• Recent resistance: $92,000
• Downtrend line resistance: $100,492
• Strong support: $84,451
• Major support: $71,486

Conclusion

The crypto crash has become a reality, not just an expectation. From institutional capital outflows, deteriorating trader sentiment, technical breakdowns, to collective on-chain bearish signals, all indicators point in the same direction: this decline has strong endogenous momentum. The coming weeks will determine whether buying interest can regain dominance or if support levels will further break down, deepening the downtrend.