Construction Stocks Investment Guide: From Bottoming Out to Peak, How to Choose Taiwanese and American Construction Stocks?

2024 is a pivotal year for the construction industry. After more than two years of adjustment, construction-related stocks finally rebounded, with capital flowing out of Tech Stocks and into domestic demand and construction sector stocks. What companies are included in the construction industry? Which targets in the Taiwan and US markets are worth关注? This article will outline the investment opportunities and risks in this sector for investors.

Definition and Classification of Construction Stocks

Construction stocks include companies engaged in construction, real estate development, and infrastructure projects. Based on business scope, they can be divided into two main categories.

Engineering Contracting (Narrower Construction Industry) mainly involves project施工, responsible for transforming building plans into实体设施. In Taiwan, companies like润弘,达欣工,根基 fall into this category, with relatively focused业务范围.

Real Estate Development (Broader Construction Industry) covers land development,设计,施工, and sales throughout the entire process. Companies like华固,总太,皇翔,亚昕 can operate multiple segments simultaneously, with a broader业务范围. These companies often outsource施工 and other环节, focusing on开发 and investment运营.

Why Focus on Construction Stocks Now?

Compared to other sectors, construction stocks have unique advantages. First, these companies often提供稳定的股息分配, with yields between 3%-6%, suitable for investors seeking现金流. Second, in an inflation environment, property prices and rents tend to rise, giving construction stocks some抗通膨能力. Third, when the housing market improves, construction companies’ revenue and profits grow rapidly, driving股价上涨.

In Q1 2024, Taiwan’s residential成交量 increased by 28.3% year-over-year, and housing prices remain high. The government’s推出的“新青安房贷”政策 further刺激需求. These factors combined provide clear基本面支撑 for construction stocks.

Representative Construction Stocks in Taiwan

Based on company operations and market表现, the following three stocks are worth重点关注:

华固（2548.TW） is a代表企业 in building materials and construction, covering commercial buildings, residential开发, interior装修, and industrial厂房出租. In 2023, EPS was NT$12.95, with an estimated dividend yield of 5.36%. The stock price rose from NT$82 in late February to over NT$170, doubling in the短期, reflecting market optimism about its未来1-2年前景.

长虹（5534.TW） is a优质 construction company, with 2023 revenue of NT$9.845 billion and EPS of NT$6.32. This year, completion and交付量 are expected to peak, with seven new projects预计入账, aiming for annual revenue of NT$10 billion. The公司持有开发案超過NT$1500亿，为未来提供稳定业绩支撑. The stock price has increased over 70% since February.

兴富发（2542.TW） is a well-known domestic developer, continuously布局 in Taiwan’s seven重点区域, with业务涵盖餐饮、商场、酒店等多元领域. The company预计未来4-5年完工案量达NT$4485亿, with入账金额逐年提升 starting next year. Over the past three months, the stock has risen more than 50%, reaching a历史新高.

US Construction-Related Stocks Overview

The US government has pledged to invest US$1 trillion in infrastructure modernization, creating long-term需求 for construction equipment, building materials, and工程 companies. Unlike Taiwan, US construction companies are mostly收益稳定型, with dividend yields between 1%-2%, not prone to skyrocket overnight but more defensive.

Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) is the world’s largest construction and mining equipment manufacturer, with a market cap of US$170 billion. In 2023, sales reached US$67.1 billion, up 13% YoY; operating margin was 19.3%, a record high; EPS was US$20.12, up 37% YoY. The company earns稳定收入 through equipment sales, financing, and spare parts services.

Nucor (NYSE: NUE) is a leading US steel manufacturer, with a market cap of US$39 billion. Since the 1960s, it has革新钢铁工艺, recycling废料 via electric arc furnaces, maintaining the industry’s lowest成本. In 2023, net profit was US$4.525 billion (down 40.27% YoY), with EPS of US$18.12. Even during demand downturns, it can保持盈利.

United Rentals (NYSE: URI) is North America’s largest equipment租赁商, with a market cap of US$49 billion and over 1,000 branches. During periods of construction繁荣, small and medium contractors are主要客户. The past decade, revenue复合年增长率为14%, EPS annual增长28%. In 2023, net profit was US$2.1 billion, with revenue of US$11.64 billion.

Risks to Watch When Investing in Construction Stocks

While construction stocks offer attractive investment opportunities, investors must注意多重风险.

Industry周期风险 is unavoidable. Changes in房地产市场供需,行业政策调整,市场竞争加剧，都可能影响企业业绩。2022下半年，construction stocks曾大幅下挫，市盈率跌至低位，便是明证。

政策风险对房地产企业影响深远。限购、限贷、土地政策调整等措施会改变市场供求与发展趋势。虽然当前政策环境相对友善，但政策转向的风险始终存在。

经营管理风险包括项目延误、成本超支、资金链问题等。若营建公司执行能力不足或财务管理不善，业绩下滑将直接拖累股价。

成本压力增加。建筑材料和劳动力成本持续攀升，公共工程利润率承压。商用和工厂建设需求也面临下滑，出口放缓进一步削弱增长动力。

短期估值风险值得警惕。2024年，construction stocks已积累可观涨幅，存在技术性回调的可能。投资者应评估当前估值水平是否合理。

如何合理投资营建股？

为降低风险，投资者应采取分散策略，避免集中押注单一公司或地区。同时，密切关注宏观经济政策、房市政策变化，以及企业的财务状况与项目进度。

对于台湾投资者，华固、长虹、兴富发等标的因业绩透明、股息稳定，更适合中长期持有。对于美股投资者，Caterpillar 和 United Rentals 在基础设施投资周期中更具成长性，而 Nucor 则提供更稳健的收益保障。

无论选择哪类标的，投资者都应根据自身风险承受能力与投资期限，制定合理的仓位管理计划。