Tonight at 21:30, the US weekly initial jobless claims data for the week ending December 20 will be released. Market expectations are at 2.2 million, compared to 2.24 million the previous week. Trading on Christmas Eve is usually light, and such data can be amplified by market sentiment, but the overall impact may be marginal.

The sensitivity of gold prices to employment data should not be underestimated. If the data exceeds expectations (≥2.25 million), a cooling in employment will reinforce expectations of rate cuts, leading to a weaker dollar and gold gains; if the data is in line with expectations between 2.18-2.22 million, the rate cut narrative remains unchanged, and gold is likely to continue fluctuating within the 4470-4500 range; if the data is below expectations (≤2.15 million), it indicates relatively strong employment, a short-term rebound in the dollar, and pressure on gold. At this point, focus should be on the 4430 support level as a key dividing line.

Looking at recent market movements, gold has shown rollercoaster-like fluctuations. Yesterday, it surged to 4500 but fell back to 4430 and stabilized with a rebound during the US session. This morning, it hit a new high of 4525, then retraced to around 4470 for consolidation. The overall trend remains bullish, and this retracement is actually a sign of bullish momentum building.

In terms of trading strategy, the lower point is the intraday dividing line. If the price revisits this level before the US session, consider setting up long positions. The 4500 level above acts as both support and resistance, with the daily moving averages already aligned in a bullish pattern. Once the European session breaks through 4500 early, any retracement before the US session presents a buying opportunity.