Can gold reach a new high in 2025? Analyzing the data for bullish and bearish logic

Starting from the Year-End Surge

As December arrives, gold continues its strong momentum, fluctuating within the range of $4,300-$4,350 per ounce, reaching levels not seen since October. Market enthusiasm for gold remains high, with many institutions and retail investors betting on further upside potential.

Looking back at the entire 2025 trend, gold has risen from $2,670 at the beginning of the year to over $4,300, an increase of more than 60%—a performance that even outpaces stock indices during the same period. Interestingly, this wave of gold rally shares a “strange synchronized rise” with stocks and cryptocurrencies, which is rare in history.

Why Is Gold Rising So Fiercely?

Weakening US Dollar as the Primary Driver

This year, the US dollar has experienced a significant weakening, directly lowering the cost of holding gold. When the dollar depreciates, gold priced in other currencies (euro, yen, RMB) becomes cheaper, boosting overseas buying enthusiasm.

Expectations of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts Continue to Ferment

The market has been betting on the Fed cutting interest rates this year. Although the Fed’s stance has shown some fluctuations, the overall tone remains accommodative. Rate cuts will lower the risk-free yield, making bonds with fixed returns less attractive, thereby increasing gold’s relative appeal.

Central Bank Buying as a Structural Support

Major economies like China and Poland have been steadily increasing their gold reserves. In the first half of the year alone, central banks purchased 244 tons of gold. This ongoing official buying provides significant support for gold prices, acting as an “invisible hand” underpinning the market.

Geopolitical Risks and Trade Tensions

Since the Trump administration took office, tariffs have been imposed on multiple countries, with US-China trade friction escalating (with tariffs reaching up to 145%). Additionally, tensions in the Middle East are intensifying—conflicts between Israel and Iran are heating up. These factors heighten investors’ risk aversion, making gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, the preferred choice.

Technical Signals

From a chart perspective, short-term technical indicators for gold appear somewhat overheated. The RSI has reached 72 at times, indicating overbought conditions; the upper Bollinger Band is frequently touched, suggesting some price overextension.

However, the medium-term trend does not show clear signs of a top. As long as key support levels are not effectively broken, the upward channel still has room to continue.

What’s Next?

Key Price Levels in the Next 30 Days

• Strong Resistance: $4,400-$4,450 per ounce
• Major Support: $4,200-$4,250 per ounce
• Breakout Target: $4,500 per ounce

Market Outlook from December to January

Year-end trading volume typically contracts, which may lead to prices oscillating within a range without significant volatility. From a technical standpoint, gold is more likely to consolidate sideways or rise slowly.

The real triggers for large swings will depend on:

• The Fed’s interest rate decision in mid-December
• The latest US inflation data
• Whether geopolitical conflicts escalate further

If these black swan events do not unexpectedly occur, gold will likely continue its consolidation above $4,300.

Summary of Expert Expectations

Based on forecasts from several major investment banks, the average target price for gold in 2025 is between $2,750 and $3,000 (note: these are based on annual averages, not final closing prices).

• Goldman Sachs: expects a historic rally after the first rate cut, with an annual target of $2,973
• Bank of America: optimistic about gold supported by rate cuts, central bank purchases, and geopolitical risks, with a target of $2,750
• JPMorgan: focuses on China demand and retail ETF flows, with a target of $2,775

Although these forecasts are below current levels, it’s important to note that gold already surpassed its all-time high at the end of 2024, and market expectations for 2025 are being revised upward.

Ways to Invest in Gold

There are multiple avenues to participate in the gold market:

Physical Gold: The most direct method, but involves storage and custody costs, and relatively lower liquidity.

Gold ETFs and Funds: Indirect holdings that eliminate storage concerns but involve management fees.

Mining Stocks: Investing in gold mining companies, which tend to be more volatile.

CFD( and Futures: High-leverage instruments that allow both long and short positions, but carry higher risks, suitable for experienced traders.

Final Words

Gold’s performance in 2025 is undoubtedly impressive, but from current technical and fundamental perspectives, the scope for further large-scale rises is narrowing. A more realistic scenario is that gold will fluctuate between $4,000 and $4,500, with the specific direction depending on Fed policies, inflation data, and geopolitical developments.

For investors planning to increase their gold holdings, there’s no need to chase the top; for those already holding positions, setting stop-losses and monitoring technical break signals is prudent. In an environment still fraught with uncertainties, gold’s safe-haven value remains worth paying attention to—but greed can sometimes lead to losses.