Gold Analysis: Market Overview and Price Forecast on November 7

General Scene: A Sensitive Balance Between Multiple Pressures

Gold today faces a complex mix of competing factors reflecting a state of uncertainty in global markets. The current price near $4,000 per ounce represents a critical tipping point, where buyers and sellers are vying without a clear direction ahead. This delicate balance is not random but reflects a clear conflict between economic signals and institutional expectations.

Last week saw a historic peak for gold at $4,381 in October, but subsequent rebounds indicate traders’ hesitation about the sustainability of this rise. Retreating to the current range may not mean a fundamental weakness but rather a reassessment of risks and opportunities in a rapidly changing environment.

US Labor Market: Accelerating Signs of Weakness

Data released this week tell a story of a clear shift in the strength of the US employment market. The figures indicate job losses in October, especially in government and retail sectors, with an unprecedented rise in layoff notices exceeding 150,000 — the highest rate in over two decades.

Federal Reserve estimates in Chicago suggest the unemployment rate has risen to about 4.36%, a concerning increase, especially amid the ongoing 37-day government shutdown, depriving markets of full, reliable official data. This absence itself raises additional concerns about the true state of the economy.

The result: probabilities of a rate cut in December have increased from 60% to nearly 69%, reflecting a rapid and significant shift in monetary policy expectations. Any further economic weakness will intensify pressure on the Federal Reserve to move more aggressively toward easing.

Dollar and Bonds Dynamics: Limited Pressure Retreat

The dollar index declined about 0.5% after reaching a four-month high, restoring gold’s appeal to foreign buyers who found prices too high during the previous dollar strength. This relative weakness of the US currency is a key supporting factor for the precious metal.

Meanwhile, declines are also beginning in 10-year bond yields from their recent levels, reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold. This dual movement improves the economic rationale for increasing exposure to precious metals.

Geopolitical Scene: Renewed Demand for Safe Havens

Although geopolitical tensions have not reached the level of direct shocks to the global economy, they have been sufficient to redirect some liquidity toward defensive assets, primarily gold. Major investors recognize that any disruption in supply chains or energy routes could reignite inflation, complicating the stance of central banks.

This caution prompts major funds to increase their proportion of defensive assets as a precaution, rather than pursuing quick profits. Conflicting diplomatic reports heighten this caution, as any path to de-escalation remains susceptible to reversal at any moment.

Stocks Under Pressure: A Shift in Sentiment

Global stock markets face clear pressures on Friday trading, with growing concern over the monetary policy trajectory. The gap between the Federal Reserve’s recent rhetoric and weak labor market data has created noticeable confusion in the markets.

Fund managers have reduced their exposure to riskier assets, especially high-valuation tech stocks that require a comfortable monetary environment to justify their current prices. Yesterday’s declines in Wall Street indices confirmed this trend, with notable selling pressure on the technology and AI sectors.

Fears of overvaluation are now a central issue, especially after strong upward waves in recent months. Without strong economic growth or clear monetary easing, profit-taking and liquidity redistribution seem to be the dominant directions currently.

Losses have also widened in European and Asian markets, with particular pressure on sectors sensitive to high financing costs such as real estate and non-essential consumer goods.

Technical Analysis: A Clear Waiting Station

Price Levels and Range

Gold traded near $4,003 during Friday’s session within a relatively narrow range between $3,975 and $4,046 on the four-hour chart. This tight range reflects a clear state of anticipation among traders, with neither side able to establish full control.

Movements during the day reached higher levels at $4,008–$4,010 before retreating to around $3,977, indicating buyers attempting to defend gains and sellers testing higher prices without commitment.

Critical Support and Resistance Levels

Main Support:

• $3,985 (An important technical level for today)
• $3,935 (A significant weekly stop-loss barrier)
• $3,886 (Strong structural support)

Main Resistance:

• $4,046 (Short-term resistance)
• $4,100 (Medium-term target)
• $4,150 (Strategic level)

Trading volume remained moderate this week, indicating no decisive decision from major traders. The Relative Strength Index stands at 53, suggesting a relative recovery in momentum without reaching overbought zones.

Overall Structure: Waiting, Not Trend

Gold is currently in a phase of balance between selling pressures and buyer resistance. The technical picture does not indicate an imminent collapse nor a strong breakout upward. Instead, the market needs a clear catalyst to break this limited range.

Price Outlook: Multiple Scenarios

Positive Scenario

If the dollar continues to weaken and labor market data deteriorates, gold could break resistance at $4,046 toward $4,100 then $4,150. This scenario depends on confirming real weakness in US employment and any signals from the Federal Reserve toward more aggressive rate cuts.

Negative Scenario

A clear break below $3,985 could quickly send the price back to $3,935. Continued decline below this level may open the way toward $3,886, a zone that will determine whether the correction is just healthy profit-taking or the start of a deeper downtrend.

Most Probable Scenario

Waiting and sideways movement seem to be the most likely trend in the near term. The market awaits stronger data — especially upcoming inflation indicators — before making a clear directional decision. In this case, gold price expectations will remain confined within the current range, with a higher likelihood of holding above $3,985.

Other Precious Metals: A Dispersed Picture

There is no unified sector momentum in precious metals. The rise is primarily limited to gold, driven by macroeconomic factors rather than industrial or broad investment demand in the sector.

Silver remains stuck below a key resistance near $49. Platinum needs to defend support at $1,500 to avoid a deeper decline. This dispersion favors gold as the clear preferred safe-haven asset at this stage.

Summary: Waiting for the Decision

Gold today stands at a critical waiting point. Gold price expectations seem directly linked to developments in the labor market and US monetary policy. The current scene combines supporting factors (weak dollar, declining bond yields, geopolitical concerns) and limited pressure from previous strong expectations.

Maintaining the $3,985 level confirms buyer strength, while staying above $4,046 could open the way to regain upward momentum. But in the absence of a clear new catalyst, remaining within the current range is the most probable scenario in the near term.