Economic data on the horizon, multiple asset classes plunge into "terror moments" as crude oil continues to fall, hitting new lows

A “big event” is imminent, and the market has already fallen into a state of tension.

Tonight at 21:30, the United States will release the November non-farm payroll report and October retail sales data. This set of data is referred to by the market as “horrible data”—not because the data itself is frightening, but because it will determine the market’s next direction. According to Bloomberg survey expectations, the number of new non-farm jobs added in November is about 50,000, and the unemployment rate may rise to 4.5%. Meanwhile, October retail sales are expected to increase by 0.2% month-over-month.

Morgan Stanley analysts summarized the current market logic in one sentence: Good economic news turns into bad news for the stock market, while bad economic news may actually be positive for the stock market. This “inverted” market mentality is playing out across global asset prices.

During Risk Aversion, Cryptocurrencies Come Under Collective Pressure

Risk aversion sentiment is spreading across the entire financial market. Driven by concerns related to AI, the imminent rate hike by the Bank of Japan, and upcoming US economic data releases, the cryptocurrency market is among the first to be affected.

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant decline, with the latest data showing the price around $86.80K, down 0.73% in 24 hours. Ethereum (ETH) performed even worse, with the price falling to $2.92K, a 1.51% decrease over 24 hours. This synchronized decline reflects a collective sell-off of risk assets in the market.

US Stock Futures Lead the Decline, Tech Stocks Hit Hard

Driven by a “better safe than sorry” mentality ahead of the non-farm payroll data release, US stock futures have already started to weaken. Before the market opened on December 16, the three major stock index futures generally declined: Dow Jones futures down 0.28%, S&P 500 futures down 0.42%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell the most, by 0.61%.

Popular tech stocks also did not escape. Nvidia (NVDA) fell 0.82%, and Tesla (TSLA) declined even more, by 1.33%, dealing a noticeable blow to Tesla’s stock price, which had previously hit a new high for the year.

Crude Oil Continues Its Fourth Consecutive Day of Decline, Supply Overhang Pressure Mounts

The commodity market is also under pressure. According to US officials, progress has been made in Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations, which could lead to the lifting of US sanctions on Russian oil companies, thereby releasing more oil supply into the market.

In anticipation of this, oil prices have fallen for the fourth consecutive day. WTI crude oil dropped 1.39%, closing at $55.88 per barrel, and Brent crude oil fell 1.16%, closing at $59.65 per barrel. From a supply perspective, market pessimism about oil has already been reflected in prices.

US Dollar Weakens, EUR/USD Achieves Five Consecutive Gains

The currency market shows a “weak dollar, strong euro” pattern. EUR/USD has risen for the fifth consecutive day, up 0.06% at the time of writing, at 1.1759.

This trend is driven by divergent monetary policy expectations between Europe and the US. The European Central Bank will announce its latest interest rate decision on Thursday, widely expected to keep rates unchanged and not cut rates in 2026. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates twice in 2026. This policy divergence is boosting the relative value of the euro against the dollar.