🚨BREAKING

CFTC CoT (Dec 9-16 data, released Dec 23):
• Ags: Corn MM short; SRW wheat MM short
• Energy: P/M short hedging; MM long
• NatGas: Massive OI; Swap Dealers heavy short; MM long
• Electricity: Commercials dominate
• Metals & other: Gold MM long; Copper OR short

Compared with the previous release, agricultural positioning has softened further rather than rebounding. Managed Money is now net short in both corn and SRW wheat, marking a shift from mixed exposure toward a more defensive stance across grains. Commercial hedging remains heavy and unchanged, suggesting the adjustment is coming from speculators trimming risk rather than any shift in producer behavior.

In petroleum, the structure remains intact with no sign of speculative crowding. Producer/Merchant short hedging continues to anchor positioning, while Managed Money stays net long without meaningful expansion. This points to positioning being carried forward, not newly built, and reflects stability rather than acceleration in energy risk appetite.

Natural gas continues to stand out. Open interest remains elevated, and Swap Dealer net short exposure has not eased, reinforcing that physical hedging and dealer flow still dominate the market. Managed Money remains net long, but positioning does not suggest control — rather, it reflects continued engagement with volatility and seasonal dynamics instead of a directional regime shift.

In electricity, speculative participation has held firm rather than fading. Managed Money exposure across key hubs remains visible, confirming that funds have not exited power markets since the last report. However, commercial players still overwhelmingly dictate overall positioning, keeping electricity fundamentally driven.

In metals, gold positioning is steady, with Managed Money maintaining net long exposure but without fresh buildup, indicating a maintained defensive allocation rather than new inflows. Copper remains cautious, as Other Reportables stay net short, showing that confidence in near-term industrial demand has not improved since the prior update.

Bottom line: versus the last report, positioning has tilted slightly more defensive, especially in grains, but there has been no broad rotation or unwind. Extremes persist, structures are largely unchanged, and the dominant signal remains continuation, not transition.