CME FedWatch: The probability of maintaining the Interest Rate in January next year is 86.7%, with expectations for a rate cut only in March.

2025-12-24 00:40:09

The CME futures market's Fed policy observation tool has provided the latest expectations. In January next year, the probability of the Fed continuing to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is only 13.3%, while the market is more inclined to maintain the interest rate unchanged, with a probability as high as 86.7%—this means that it is highly likely to remain unchanged in January.

Looking ahead to March next year, the situation becomes more complex. The likelihood of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points rises to 40.7%, but the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged still accounts for the majority, at 54.4%. At the same time, the market is also pricing in a more aggressive rate cut scenario - the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 5.0%, which, while not high, is not zero.

Understanding from another angle: The market remains cautious about the Fed's interest rate cut pace in the first half of next year. This has a substantial impact on the liquidity environment for crypto assets and the pricing of risk assets.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

20 Likes

Reward
20
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

notSatoshi1971

· 2025-12-25 07:14

January is definitely on hold, which means we should just hold tight and wait. The drama will only start in March? Let's see then. For now, we still need to watch out for a sudden hawkish turn. The Federal Reserve's procrastination is really impressive; the liquidity still hasn't arrived, making crypto trading quite tough. Likely, in the first half of next year, we'll still need to be cautious and conservative, with not much to look forward to. 86.7% chance of no change? That means we’ll have to keep waiting through the winter...

View OriginalReply0

RealYieldWizard

· 2025-12-25 00:50

January is definitely not moving, the data says it clearly, 86.7% is basically locked in. Waiting until March to see a rate cut? I doubt it, 54% still maintain, the Federal Reserve is really dragging its feet this time. It's still "cautious attitude," in plain words, it means we still have to endure, liquidity isn't coming back so quickly. If this continues, when will we actually see a real rate cut cycle... Waiting in January is pointless, better to pay attention to March's movements, although the chances aren't great either. Again, waiting so long? The crypto circle can't afford to wait that long. It seems we shouldn't expect any favorable policies in the first half of next year, and the trapped investors will be stuck for a while longer.

View OriginalReply0

ContractTearjerker

· 2025-12-24 01:10

January has already locked in about 80% without any movement, and those hoping for an early rate cut will have to continue waiting... There’s a bit of hope in March, but the probability is only over 40%. To put it bluntly, it still depends on the Fed's mood.

View OriginalReply0

DuckFluff

· 2025-12-24 01:01

January really has to hold on, with an 86.7% probability it's a done deal. Wait, how can the liquidity environment improve like this... the crypto world still has to endure in the first half of next year. Rate cuts seem far away, and it feels like we're about to fall into a long-term sideways rhythm. 50 basis points is only 5%? Forget it, don’t think too optimistically. The Fed is so cautious, what should we do? Next year we continue to eat according to the Fed's mood, damn it.

View OriginalReply0

PriceOracleFairy

· 2025-12-24 00:54

so basically fed's gonna sit tight in jan... 86.7% is not exactly a surprise tbh, the oracle's been screaming this for weeks. but that march bifurcation tho—54.4% hold vs 40.7% cut is where the real market entropy starts leaking through. liquidity's gonna stay constrained until we see actual dovish signals, which... yeah not happening soon lol

Reply0

AlwaysAnon

· 2025-12-24 00:47

That's why things are so tight at the beginning of the year. Let's see if it can loosen up a bit in March.

View OriginalReply0