#美国经济与货币政策 The Fed is almost certain to cut rates tonight, with a probability of 87.6%, but the real highlight of this meeting is not about the 25bp cut.

The key lies in two things: first is the signal of balance sheet expansion - how the Fed will manage its balance sheet after stopping the tapering, and whether it will really inject liquidity; second is the voting disagreements, which is the main event. Among the 12 FOMC voting members, 5 oppose or are skeptical of further easing, while 3 members of the Board support it, a situation that has been rare since 1990.

From the perspective of following orders, this meeting is like a political stress test, and the degree of division among decision-makers directly determines the direction of monetary policy in 2026. Interestingly, the market may have overestimated the certainty of interest rate cuts — Nomura economists pointed out that the risks of not cutting rates have been seriously underestimated.

So what really needs to be focused on is not whether interest rates will be cut or not, but rather: how Powell speaks, how many dissenting votes there are, and whether there will be signals of balance sheet expansion. These details determine the subsequent market trends and also directly affect the trading logic of the macro traders I follow. The liquidity turning point often creates more volatility than the policy itself, so it's wise to be prepared for risk management.