Analysis: After the big dump on 10.11, long-term holders made an epic distribution, leading to significant changes in the BTC cost structure.

On December 22, on-chain data analyst Murphy viewed the big dump on October 11 as the starting point of this round of decline, analyzing that the BTC cost structure has undergone significant changes over the past two months as follows: The most accumulated BTC range is between $80,000 and $90,000, totaling 2.536 million coins, an increase of 1.874 million coins compared to October 11, making it the strongest support range to date. The next range is between $90,000 and $100,000 (an increase of 324,000 coins), and the range between $100,000 and $110,000 (an increase of 87,000 coins); with the current BTC price as the medium term, the upper floating losses total 6.168 million coins, and the lower unrealized gains total 7.462 million coins. Excluding Satoshi Nakamoto and long-lost BTC, the current structure is almost balanced. From the big dump on October 11 to December 20, the lower profitable positions decreased by 1.33 million coins, while the upper loss-making positions with costs above $110,000 decreased by 902,000 coins. The number of BTC in the $100,000 to $110,000 range did not decline but actually increased by 87,000 coins. During this round of decline, a significant amount of top positions were cut losses, while the remaining positions have already leveled off. Profitable positions are being sold off in large quantities, driven by the four-year cycle theory, macro uncertainties, and market concerns such as quantum threats, prompting long-term holders to engage in epic distribution. Among them, BTC in the $60,000 to $70,000 range has the largest quantity and the highest selling volume, most of which are chips accumulated before the 2024 U.S. presidential election. With profits significantly retracting, there is an urgent need to cash out. Currently, the $70,000 to $80,000 range is a relatively 'gap area,' with only 190,000 BTC left. A very small portion of market participants hold BTC at this price, and if it falls to this range, it may attract a large influx of new liquidity, thereby providing support.