#美联储政策 Looking at this wave of data, the situation before the FOMC is indeed quite heartbreaking. There has only been a rise once in 7 meetings, and this success rate is lower than many traders I have seen. Year-end liquidity is at a bottom, open interest has decreased by 40-50%, and retail investors have collectively adopted a bear market sentiment. At this time, still wanting to chase the price? That would be asking for trouble.

The key is the variable of the balance sheet. On the surface, the market expects a 25bp rate cut, but what truly determines the direction is this—whether the central bank will continue to release liquidity. The few experts I follow are all doing the same thing: staying in cash or with light positions and waiting. It's not about being bearish, but rather waiting for definitive signals to appear.

Interestingly, the supply side is tightening—25,000 BTC are leaving the market, and exchange balances are at an all-time low, indicating that large funds are bottom-fishing. However, the retail investors have all run away, creating a vacuum. On the day of the meeting on Wednesday, any breakout in either direction could trigger significant volatility.

In this situation, the following order strategy needs to be adjusted: aggressive orders can take partial profits first; conservative ones should continue to hold, as long-term funds are still quietly accumulating. The key is not to be shaken out by the fluctuations on FOMC day. When liquidity is poor, stop-loss points should be widened, and positions with weak tolerance should be reduced.

Only when the results of the meeting are out and the guidance on the balance sheet is announced will the market reveal its true intentions. That's when the real trading opportunities will arise.