[When "fear of rate hikes" meets "Christmas magic", key structures determine the outcome]

Observing historical patterns: the first interest rate hike on July 31, 2024, led to a market circuit breaker on August 5 (Nikkei 225 index plummeting by 12.4%); another rate hike on January 28, 2025, resulted in another market crash on February 3. Historical data shows that after these two rate hikes, the price of Bitcoin experienced a deep correction of about 30%.
Friends, the interest rate hike in Japan has materialized, but we still cannot relax our guard. After analyzing historical data and the current market, I have some thoughts to share with everyone.
During the interest rate hikes at the end of July last year and the end of January this year, the market did not crash on the same day, but rather began to plummet about 5 or 6 days later.
Why is this happening? Behind it is a big game called "Yen Arbitrage Trading." There are many people around the world who borrow yen at very low interest rates to exchange for dollars to buy high-risk assets like Bitcoin and U.S. stocks. When Japan raises interest rates, the cost of borrowing yen increases, and the yen itself may appreciate, putting these people's assets under the pressure of "double losses from exchange rates and interest." To pay back and cut losses, they have no choice but to sell off their assets and convert back to yen. This process takes time for large institutions to adjust their positions, so the market's reaction will be delayed by a few days.

But this time, there are two things that are different:
1. Everyone is prepared: This interest rate hike was already anticipated by the market and is not surprising.
2. The holiday season is upon us: With Christmas approaching, the liquidity in the European and American markets is very poor, and even a slight disturbance can amplify price fluctuations.

So, the next few days (especially the next 5-6 days) are a key observation period. We need to be aware of historical patterns and also keep a close eye on the current prices.

From a technical perspective, the market is currently oscillating in a box with a "top above and bottom below"; it needs to increase in volume to break the deadlock.

For Bitcoin (BTC): The strength of the entire market depends on it.
BTC holds steady at 89,500 looking towards 90,500 → 91,500; if it retraces and breaks below 87,500, look to buy at 86,000 → 86,500.

ETH holds steady above 3,000 looking at 3,050 → 3,125; if it pulls back below 2,950, buy at 2,930 → 2,900. If it stabilizes at 3,030, it is expected to surge to 3,265.

Summarize the idea:
In the coming week, we need to "stay alert, but not scare ourselves." The market has historical burdens, but this time it's different. In terms of operations, don't be too heavy on positions, and let everything be based on price.

If holding positions: consider 87,500 for BTC and 2,950 for ETH as defensive bottom lines, hold on the line, and consider reducing positions offline to hedge.
If you are waiting: don't rush to chase the highs. If you really want to take action, either wait for the price to strongly break through the key resistance levels (BTC 88500 / ETH 3,000) before following in, or patiently wait for it to pull back to the support levels mentioned below and wait for a clear stop-loss signal before proceeding.

Market trends are revealed through actions, not guesses. It's more important for us to prepare plans to handle various situations than to predict price increases or decreases.

(Personal notes, for reference and communication only)
Market risk is high, operations should be cautious, and decisions must be independent.
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