#经济不确定性与通胀 Seeing the recent end-of-year liquidity bottoming out and the fluctuations, memories of 2017 come to mind. Back then, we also experienced similar moments—retail investor sentiment returning to Bear Market levels, a big dump in the open interest of Perptual Futures, which looked like the market's despair. But now, looking back, that was precisely the time when long term capital was most active.

This time is no different. In the past two weeks, 25,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges, with ETF and corporate holdings surpassing exchange balances for the first time, and ETH reserves falling to nearly a decade low. The data tells a story – what are institutions and true long term participants doing when retail investors are retreating in fear? They are accumulating. I have seen this pattern too many times.

The drastic fluctuations from $88,000 to $92,000 may seem chaotic, but in essence, they are a normal manifestation of liquidity exhaustion. What does a smaller liquidation scale indicate? It is a fact that participation has declined, but it also means that the market has filtered out the true believers. The FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday became a catalyst, and the guidance of the balance sheet is more critical than the rate cut itself—under economic uncertainty, the central bank's stance determines whether risky assets can break through the constraints by the end of the year.

Those who have experienced multiple cycles understand that the liquidity vacuum before the year-end holiday is often the best time to ambush. A breakthrough on either side may trigger a major trend, the key is which side you stand on.