As of 2025-12-21 16:00, the current price of BTC is approximately 88100 USD, with a slight fall of about 0.2% in the last 24 hours and a fall of about 2.3% over the last 7 days. Overall, it is showing a weak fluctuation pattern. In the short term, it is expected to range between 85000 and 90000, while the medium-term outlook depends on key support and macro/funding catalysts.

1. Core Key Levels (Precise)

• Support: 88000 (short-term moving average/psychological level), 85000 (medium-term lifeline, Fibonacci 0.786 retracement), 80000 (strong support)

• Resistance: 89500-90500 (intense selling pressure), 91000 (medium-term midpoint), 94000 (previous high zone)

2. Technical Analysis (Multi-Timeframe)

• Daily: The price has been above the EMA7 (about 87873) for three consecutive days, the MACD has turned positive but the volume is insufficient, the bearish arrangement remains unchanged, and the oscillation is biased to the downside.

• 2 hours: MACD golden cross, stabilizing above EMA30 (around 87806), short-term rebound test, but the strength below the zero line is limited.

• 4 hours: extreme volume contraction in sideways movement, EMA convergence, KDJ death cross, bulls and bears choosing direction at the 90,000 level, need to break out with volume to confirm direction.

3. Influencing Factors (Drivers and Risks)

• Bullish: Continuous inflow of ETF funds (BlackRock annual net inflow of 25 billion), the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is beneficial for risk assets, and liquidity transmission is lagging (about 90 days)

• Bearish factors: The previous strong selling pressure above 94,000 has not been digested, liquidity is thin which can amplify volatility, regulatory disturbances and options expiration, miner sell-offs and large transfers impact.

IV. Trend Analysis and Trading Recommendations

• Short term (1-3 days): Highly likely to fluctuate between 87000-89500, first looking at resistance at 89500-90500, then support at 88000-85000.

• Mid-term (1-4 weeks): Maintain the range if it holds at 85000, if it falls below, it will test 80000; only a stable breakout above 91000 with volume could lead to a reversal.

• Operation (Strict Risk Control):

1. Short-term: Short lightly at 89500-90500 on the rebound, stop loss at 92500, target at 88500; Long lightly at 85500-86500 on the pullback, stop loss at 84500, target at 88000.

2. Position: Total leverage ≤ 2x, single transaction ≤ 10% of principal, strict stop loss.

3. Risk Control: Reduce positions to avoid risk if the daily closing price breaks 85000; increase positions again if it stabilizes above 91000 with volume.