#美联储政策影响 The Fed is set to cut interest rates this week, but what will truly determine the subsequent market is not these 25 basis points, but Powell's statement that "the threshold for rate cuts in 2026 is very high."

This is the watershed in the eyes of traders. Institutions have already begun to digest this signal — the rate cut cycle may be coming to a halt, and the real test will be in the first half of next year. The position adjustments of several top traders I’ve been tracking over the past few days are indicative; some have started to hold lighter positions and wait, while others have increased their long leverage in anticipation of a policy reversal. This is why following trades cannot be based solely on account returns; it is essential to understand their decision-making logic at critical moments.

The voting discrepancies are also worth paying attention to. I tend to agree with Nomura's view — nothing is certain right now, and the market may be underestimating the risk of not lowering interest rates. The stance of the four regional Fed chairmen after their rotation will be very interesting, as it can reflect how much divergence there is within the Fed. The greater the divergence, the more opportunities there are for market volatility.

Recently adjusting the copy trading configuration, allocating some positions to the aggressive camp favoring rate cuts and the cautious camp favoring stability. At this time, sticking to a single style is too easy to get beaten. Let's see who’s strategy can truly withstand the test after Powell's press conference.