Evening Market Outlook: BTC Key Levels Define Direction, Details Hide Risks

Saturday's market has been inherently volatile, and the survival rule in the crypto space is never about making the market adapt to you, but proactively aligning with the rhythm—focusing first on core trading signals:

1. Hourly Key Dividing Line

The resistance level above is clearly at 88386. Only a volume breakout can sustain the upward trend, with the target directly at 89503 or even higher; the neckline at 87773 is the lifeline for the bulls. Holding this level and staying above 88000 makes the upward structure stable; if it breaks below 87773, there is a high probability of retesting the support at 86913. Losing this level would thoroughly damage the bullish trend.

Range-bound oscillation can be categorized into two scenarios:

- Not breaking above 88386 and not breaking below 87773: Lock in the 88386-87773 range
- Not breaking above 88386 but breaking below 87773: Transition into a 88386-86913 box

Trading strategy is clear: a volume breakout above 88380 on the right side signals a long entry; a volume breakdown below 87525 with a failed rebound indicates a short entry, with strict stop-loss placement. If the breakout stabilizes above 88386, expect bullish movement toward 89503-90623; if a 4-hour drop below 87456 occurs and cannot recover, the correction target is 86852-86147.

2. Hidden Risks on the 4-Hour Chart

Currently, BTC has stabilized above the EMA20 daily moving average, but the EMA50 daily moving average lacks strong support. Only if it firmly holds above EMA50 can there be a chance to challenge the EMA200 daily moving average.

⚠️ Key risk point: The large bearish candle within the yellow box shows obvious suppression—the 4-hour chart has already formed 10 candles and has yet to break through the high of this bearish candle. Moreover, the closing prices of the last 7 candles are all below the high of the bearish candle, indicating a continued pattern of consolidation. Until the 4-hour candle closes effectively above this bearish candle, the downside risk remains!

Focus should be on whether a 4-hour candle closes above this bearish candle, and closely monitor volume changes. Do not operate blindly until the signal is clear.