#大户持仓动态 Federal Reserve Chair Nominee: The Market Is Deciding the Future of Crypto with Real Money

In the past two weeks, the prediction market has gone crazy over the Fed chair nomination drama.

According to real-time data from multiple prediction platforms, Kevin Hasset’s probability of being nominated within the Trump team has surged to around 54%, while his main competitor Kevin Waugh’s probability has fallen to a relatively disadvantaged position. This number was a completely different story two weeks ago—Waugh was leading at one point with a 45% chance. Now, the market’s vote with real money is very clear.

Two completely different Fed chair candidates mean two parallel economic worlds.

If Hasset is ultimately selected, the market will face a dovish Federal Reserve—he has repeatedly expressed support for lowering interest rates to around 1%, which would release a huge amount of liquidity into the market. Additionally, he holds a significant amount of stock in a compliant platform and is widely regarded as “crypto-friendly,” which is undoubtedly a major positive for risk assets, especially the crypto ecosystem. Assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum tend to perform best in environments of low interest rates and high liquidity.

In contrast, Waugh represents another path—while also supporting rate cuts, he might continue to push for balance sheet reduction to absorb liquidity. This would put short-term risk assets under pressure, and the crypto market would find it hard to remain unaffected.

The logic of market betting is straightforward: a 54% probability weight means traders collectively bet that loose liquidity will become the main theme. Historically, 84% of economists believe Hasset has the capability to hold this position, but only 11% think he is fully “suitable”—this huge divergence itself presents an opportunity for the market.

For those involved, there are a few practical observations:

First, the fluctuations in prediction market probabilities themselves represent price information. Every significant change reflects new information entering, and short-term probability swings often correspond to asset price volatility.

Second, the direction of Federal Reserve policy is almost the most critical variable determining the short- and medium-term performance of crypto assets. Historically, every major easing cycle has been associated with a significant rise in the crypto market, while balance sheet reduction periods are the most challenging.

Third, regardless of who ultimately takes office, the long-term trend of fiat currency erosion is certain. Against the backdrop of global central banks facing policy adjustment pressures, the appeal of crypto assets as an alternative store of value is increasing. This is a broader logic that transcends short-term candidate considerations.

Assets like $ETH and $ZEC perform differently under various policy expectations, which is definitely worth noting. When the market begins pricing in “interest rate cut expectations,” such high-volatility assets usually react first.

Before the wind rises, the market has already started reallocating positions. Some are waiting for certainty, while others are already laying out their plans.