Strategic Challenges Ahead: Why MLB Must Reassess Its Expansion Blueprint

Major League Baseball stands at a critical juncture. Recent headlines have centered on media negotiations, franchise relocations, and ambitious expansion plans, yet the underlying complexities reveal a sport wrestling with fundamental business transformation. While expansion to 32 teams across eight divisions captures the imagination, the practical realities demand MLB slow down and think strategically about what sustainable baseball values truly mean in tomorrow’s market.

The Las Vegas Gamble: Betting on an Uncertain Market

The Athletics’ migration to Las Vegas represents perhaps the most controversial franchise decision in recent memory. Despite the ceremonial groundbreaking in June 2025 for a 33,000-seat domed stadium, skeptics question whether MLB made the right call. Las Vegas presents a troubling profile: it’s a transient entertainment market where casual visitors outnumber long-term residents. With 81 regular season home games per year and an MLB average attendance of 29,303 fans per game in 2025, will the Mojave Desert truly sustain a major league franchise?

The financial picture grows murkier. Initial construction estimates pegged the stadium at $1.5 billion, yet current projections approach $2 billion—a staggering $500 million increase after just two months of active construction. Owner John Fisher faces an unprecedented challenge: building a devoted fan base from scratch while competing against unlimited entertainment alternatives in a television market smaller than Milwaukee.

This isn’t simply a real estate venture. According to Forbes, the average MLB franchise values stands at $2.6 billion. A Las Vegas Athletics franchise will need to justify that valuation by generating revenue streams that match traditional markets. The question looms: can Fisher achieve this in a city known for temporary enthusiasm rather than generational fan loyalty?

Tampa Bay’s Unfinished Business

Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays situation exemplifies MLB’s struggle with market viability. Hurricane Milton’s devastation of Tropicana Field forced the Rays to play home games at a Yankees spring training facility, exposing infrastructure vulnerabilities that have plagued the franchise for years.

New ownership is incoming. A reported $1.7 billion sale to Patrick Zalupski, Bill Cosgrove, Ken Babby and local investors appears imminent, according to recent reports. This represents a dramatic appreciation from the $200 million purchase price in 2004, yet Forbes values the franchise at only $1.25 billion—a disconnect suggesting market uncertainty.

The central issue remains unresolved: Central West Florida has struggled to provide the economic foundation the Rays need. After nearly 20 years chasing a new ballpark across Tampa, St. Petersburg, and various relocation scenarios—including the bizarre proposal to split seasons between Florida and Montreal—MLB has chosen to maintain a presence despite obvious constraints. This commitment to the region, while admirable, masks deeper questions about sustainable baseball values in mid-tier markets.

The Structural Problem: Collective Bargaining and Revenue Models

MLB’s expansion ambitions collide directly with labor negotiations. On December 1, 2026, the current collective bargaining agreement expires. Expect Commissioner Rob Manfred and ownership to push aggressively for salary cap implementation—a demand players will fiercely resist.

The core issue: large-market franchises like the Dodgers and Mets treat the Competitive Balance Tax as a minor expense, casually spending nine-figure penalties to exceed payroll thresholds. Smaller-market teams like the Twins and Nationals face pressure to avoid sale given debt concerns, weakening media rights, and inability to attract investor capital. This asymmetry undermines the entire league’s financial health and makes expansion strategically questionable.

Meanwhile, the traditional television model is dead. Regional sports networks have withered. If MLB cannot establish equitable revenue distribution through new media partnerships with ESPN, NBC Sports, and Netflix, expansion franchises will inherit an inherited weakness, not opportunity.

What Sustainable Baseball Values Actually Require

Before adding 32 franchises, MLB must solve three interconnected problems:

Content Distribution and Fan Access: Blackout restrictions remain absurd relics. Fans in North Carolina, theoretically part of Orioles, Nationals, Reds, and Braves territory, spend hundreds annually on streaming subscriptions yet still cannot watch every game. This broken model cannot scale to new markets. A direct-to-consumer approach must evolve, offering unprecedented accessibility at affordable price points.

Ballpark Economics Beyond Baseball: Modern stadiums are no longer single-purpose venues. The Las Vegas complex, valued at $1.75-2 billion, succeeds only if integrated with hospitality, residential, and retail development. This represents far more sophisticated ownership requirements than 1995, when the Diamondbacks and Devil Rays each paid just $130 million expansion fees. Today’s entry fee approaches $1 billion minimum—meaning only experienced, well-capitalized ownership groups can compete.

Franchise Stability Over Quantity: Adding teams matters less than stabilizing existing ones. The Athletics and Rays sagas demonstrate that geographic complexity, economic headwinds, and infrastructure fragility can destabilize any franchise, regardless of perceived market size. MLB must attract experienced professional sports ownership with intimate market knowledge, not just deep pockets.

The Path Forward: Strategic Pause, Not Expansion Rush

Baseball values extend beyond winning percentages and attendance figures. They encompass financial sustainability, fan engagement, competitive balance, and operational excellence. Expansion cannot proceed until MLB demonstrates it has mastered these fundamentals.

The prudent course: take a multiyear strategic pause. Observe how the Rays stabilize under new ownership, assess whether Las Vegas genuinely builds fan loyalty, and determine if Netflix and other media partners transform the revenue equation. Only then should MLB seriously pursue expansion with confidence that new franchises inherit a healthy, evolving business model rather than inherited problems.

Commissioner Manfred and the ownership group must envision what successful franchise baseball values will look like a decade from now—not just in Las Vegas or Charlotte, but league-wide. That clarity, not expansion speed, should drive decision-making.