Why in a cycle, the hardest part isn't judging the direction, but doing nothing

In the middle of a cycle, many people develop a false impression: as long as they judge the direction correctly, everything else is just execution. But after going through several rounds of market movements, you'll realize that judging the direction has never been the hardest part; the real challenge is, after roughly understanding the direction, still resisting the urge to act.

Especially in the current environment, where macro expectations are repeatedly revised, good news and bad news appear in turn, and prices have seemingly reasonable explanations both up and down. You're not entirely without judgment; rather, any single judgment isn't enough to justify risking your emotions and costs to act. The market doesn't give you clear signals but keeps providing incentives.

Thus, the most draining phase occurs: you know full well that acting now isn't cost-effective, yet every day you're reminded to do something. Browsing news, reading opinions, reviewing others' trades—all information hints that inaction itself might be a mistake.

But the true test of a person in a cycle is precisely here.

Taoism speaks of Wu Wei, often misunderstood as passivity and giving up. But in trading, Wu Wei doesn't mean not thinking; it means refusing to act to soothe anxiety when you lack an advantage. You're not incapable of acting; you're choosing not to entrust yourself to an immature situation.

Many losses don't happen when you judge incorrectly but occur the moment you know you shouldn't move yet still do. At that moment, you're no longer trading based on the direction but on inner unease. The market shows no mercy.

You will gradually realize that doing nothing is actually a highly demanding state. It requires you to trust your system enough, be confident in the rhythm, and endure a kind of unseen time pressure for results. In this phase, there's no positive feedback, no applause, not even confirmation that you're right.

And cycles tend to prolong this phase repeatedly.

Truly mature traders often learn to detach their focus from price fluctuations amid this tug-of-war. They start paying attention not to the next candlestick but to whether their state is stable, whether their execution is clean, and whether they can maintain patience on uneventful days.

You might think they are waiting for the market, but in fact, they are waiting for themselves to return to a state where they can act clearly. When that moment arrives, they act very little but with exceptional decisiveness.

Cycles never reward those who act frequently; they favor those who know when to stop. Many can judge the direction accurately to eight or nine out of ten, but only those who can stay steady during the long periods of waiting truly have the ability to turn judgment into results.

So, when you find yourself understanding the market but not wanting to move; having a sense of direction but choosing to wait, that's not retreating. It's a sign that you are beginning to understand how cycles truly operate.

In this market, those who can resist doing anything are often the last ones still standing inside the game. #成长值抽奖赢金条和精美周边