Batch accumulation of spot holdings, aiming for weekly level rebounds, and not missing opportunities even in a bear market. The Japanese rate hike landing, the negative news turning into positive, everything is within expectations (as mentioned in the daily report two days ago).

However, the market remains weak, with intense volatility, and contract trading is extremely exhausting.

Nevertheless, one point is already very clear: the weekly rebound is likely to be late, but it will definitely not be absent.

There are two main possibilities for the current trend: first, probe for a bottom and break new lows, forming the 5th wave of the 4-hour decline, then initiate a rebound, forming a weekly wave b (target 90,000-100,000), followed by further decline, with the first target at 70,000-80,000.

A direct rebound, forming a weekly wave b (target 90,000-100,000), then decline again, with the first target at 70,000-80,000.

The common point of these two paths is: both feature a clear wave b rebound (a brief rally).

The difference is that one is a decline followed by a rise and then another decline, while the other is a rise followed by a decline. In a bear market, such rebounds are often the most deadly: they can make the bulls believe the bull market has returned, shake the confidence of the bears, and then wipe out everyone. Therefore, the big opportunity remains to short at the wave b high point: in the 94,500-107,000-104,000 range, with the strategy unchanged. But at the same time, the wave b rebound itself is also worth looking forward to. Recent market swings are obvious, with signs of manipulation; both a break below and a direct rebound are possible. Contract traders need extreme patience and should avoid chasing highs and selling lows. Since the overall trend probability is now clear, I personally choose to start accumulating spot holdings in batches now, focusing on betting on the wave b rebound of the weekly chart, while minimizing risks: core holdings: spot BTC and ETH, gradually buy in, and set up grid longs.

Altcoins: light positions in ICP, Sol, and other spot assets, buying in batches or setting up spot grids.

Aggressive traders: 1-3x leverage contract long grids.

In volatile markets, grid trading yields very high returns. Practice has proven: I opened a short ETH grid around 3300, and yesterday I opened a long silver grid; both are now profitable.

The oscillation gains from the ETH grid even exceeded trend shorts, fully demonstrating that grid trading during sideways markets is the most profitable strategy.

Spot positioning almost eliminates risk while not missing any rebound opportunities. Since it’s a combination of spot + grid strategy, the longer the sideways market lasts, the better.

Impatient traders are advised not to touch it. Special note on ETH:

Over a month ago, I mentioned in the daily report that the active addresses of BTC sharply shrank, a clear bear market signal (at that time, BTC was around 107,000).

But the active addresses of ETH have not shown a significant decline until now (see Figure 2). Meanwhile, ETH’s exchange rate against BTC has remained above the support zone, showing obvious strength (see Figure 3).

Once the weekly wave b rebound begins, ETH is highly likely to lead the entire market higher, making it worth close tracking. Yesterday’s long strategy at 2750-2850 was perfectly fulfilled: ETH precisely fell to the Schiff pitchfork’s red median line support and rebounded, reaching around 2960 before retreating (already warned in the group), then fell again to 2780 and rebounded precisely at the red median line (see Figure 4).

This again proves the high effectiveness of technical analysis in sideways markets.

Next, continue operating according to this idea: prepare to go long on ETH again around 2700. To summarize in one sentence:

This is not about betting on a bull market, but about a weekly rebound within a bear market.

The combination of spot + grid is about minimizing risks while capturing as many trading opportunities as possible.

In a bear market, opportunities are never lacking; it all depends on whether you dare to stand firm during the coldest times.