PIPPIN has recently been performing aggressively, with the price in a rapid upward phase. But the immediate question is—how long can this rally last?

**Short-term bulls are a bit overextended**

Looking at recent movements, the launch of perpetual contracts on major exchanges has indeed sparked a wave of enthusiasm. Open interest has hit new highs, indicating substantial capital is betting in the market, and leverage levels have reached new heights. Coupled with the AI agent story (backed by former PayPal executive Yohei Nakajima), community discussion remains very active.

From a technical perspective, the outlook is also positive—on the 4-hour chart, the price is generally staying above key moving averages, showing a healthy bullish alignment. The MACD indicates a bullish crossover, and momentum still looks strong. However, there is a hidden risk: RSI has entered overbought territory, with some periods exceeding 80, which is a red flag. More critically, signs of negative funding rates or sharp fluctuations are appearing, often signaling that short-term profit-taking traders may start to exit. If that happens, the price could suddenly "spike" down sharply, resulting in a rapid decline.

**The crossroads in the coming weeks**

The next move really depends on whether the price can hold above the strong resistance at 0.45-0.47.

If a volume breakout occurs above this zone, the upside could open up. Targets might then be in the 0.50-0.66 range. Conversely, if the price faces resistance around 0.45 and pulls back, a correction is inevitable. In that case, keep a close eye on the support levels at 0.37 (around the 20-day moving average) and 0.30—the latter being the 50-day moving average and a previous support level.

If 0.30 cannot hold, the trend will truly weaken, and further declines could follow, possibly reaching 0.26 or even 0.18.

**On-chain and capital risks**

On-chain data shows that the token's distribution is somewhat concentrated—large addresses hold a significant portion of the circulating supply. This structure can drive rapid upward moves, but once these whales start transferring tokens to exchanges for selling, it could be a sign of impending sell-off. Keep a close watch on large on-chain transfers.

Another more direct risk is the high leverage on contracts—up to 50x—and the surge in open interest. This indicates market fragility. Any slight adverse price movement could trigger chain reactions of liquidations, causing the price to plummet in a very short time.

**Practical trading approach**

Avoid blindly chasing highs. If the price retraces to the 0.37-0.40 zone and stabilizes, that could be a good short-term long entry point. But if it breaks below 0.30, consider exiting and observing the market—don't hold on stubbornly.