The Bank of Japan acted as scheduled, raising interest rates for the first time in 11 months to 0.75%, hitting a 30-year high. Interestingly, while rate hikes usually lead to yen appreciation, this time the opposite happened—the US dollar against the yen broke through the 156 level, and the yen depreciated accordingly.

On the surface, this seems contradictory. But the central bank itself provided an explanation: even with the rate hike, real interest rates remain deeply negative. In other words, nominal interest rates have increased, but the actual purchasing power is still being eroded by inflation. Wages and prices are likely to continue rising modestly in tandem, with real yields still clustered in negative territory.

More importantly, the central bank’s attitude is very cautious. They are deliberately avoiding giving a clear timetable for future rate hikes. This strategic ambiguity is clever—it helps prevent the yen from experiencing large swings again. If they were too explicit, the market might overreact.

So, the real policy logic is this: outwardly claiming to tighten (raise rates), but internally maintaining a dovish stance, just taking very cautious steps.

As for when the next move might happen, the market currently prices in June or July of next year. But many industry voices believe this is too optimistic. An increasing number of analysts lean toward a more conservative window—October 2026. What do you think, how long can the central bank maintain this "tight-lipped, but actually easing" balance?