Non-farm payroll data is not just simple noise but a typical mid-stage signal of a "soft landing path."

The reason this set of non-farm data has sparked divergent discussions is that it simultaneously presents two signals: "still expanding" and "cooling down." The addition of 64,000 jobs in November exceeds expectations, indicating that companies are not engaging in large-scale layoffs; however, the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% and the significant downward revision of October data clearly point to a marginal weakening in labor demand. This combination is not uncommon; rather, it resembles a mid-stage state where the economy is transitioning from overheating back toward equilibrium.

If this were noise, it would typically manifest as extreme fluctuations in a single indicator; but what we are seeing now is multiple indicators moving in the same direction—"slowing down"—including slower wage growth, revisions of previous figures, and rising unemployment. This suggests the issue is not statistical error but that companies are becoming more cautious in their hiring decisions.

From the Federal Reserve's perspective, this is precisely the outcome they most want to see: the economy is not collapsing, inflationary pressures are easing, and employment is no longer overheating. Therefore, rather than viewing this as a recession signal, it is better to see it as a "natural slowdown after policy measures take effect."

For the market, such data is often not a cause for panic but rather a reason to weaken the argument for "continued tightening." The crypto market fears policy uncertainty most, and now that uncertainty is decreasing.

This is more like a phase signal within a trend rather than a one-time noise.