Market consensus is often the easiest place to get caught in a trap.

The recent trending topic is nothing more than the Fed's rate hike expectations. Open various communities and read analysts' opinions, and it's basically one voice: rate hikes are coming, and the market will crash. Hearing this so often actually makes me a bit uneasy.

As someone who has been in the crypto space for many years, I have a deep insight — when everyone is preparing for the same thing, the market often surprises us. I doubt this rate hike wave will break that pattern.

**Why have the negative factors already been priced in?**

Looking at Bitcoin's performance makes this clear. Although it’s fluctuating around $90,000, a close watch shows that each dip is quickly bought up, and the selling pressure isn’t as fierce as imagined.

The most telling indicator is the market’s expectation of the rate hike. A few weeks ago, it was a 30% probability; now it’s surged to 80-90%. What does such high certainty mean? It means those who wanted to sell early have mostly done so. The market has already digested this news.

A review of the Bank of Japan’s actions in 2024 reveals the pattern. The surprise rate hike on July 31 last year caused Bitcoin to drop over 10% that day, which looked quite alarming. But what happened afterward? After short-term intense volatility, Bitcoin gradually stabilized over the following months, even reaching a new high at the end of the year. This process is quite interesting — a short-term dip followed by medium-term strength. What does this tell us? That the market is capable of learning and adapting.

**What is the real story on-chain?**

Setting aside technical and news factors, the most genuine signals are often on-chain. What is the current level of Bitcoin held on exchanges? This data doesn’t lie. Those who want to hold coins have already transferred them to cold wallets, and the actual amount remaining on exchanges is decreasing.

What does this mean? It indicates that the preparation for a dump isn’t as sufficient as it seems. If a big crash were imminent, exchanges should be filled with sell orders, but that’s not the case now.

**The game of market pricing**

We often say "bad news is good news once it’s fully priced in," and this isn’t some profound theory — it’s an eternal game the market plays. When a negative expectation has been exaggerated to a high degree, the actual outcome is often the opposite. Why? Because people have already priced in the worst-case scenario.

The current rate hike wave is the same. So far, those still wildly bearish are just trying to buy the dip. But what conditions would cause a significant drop? It’s if someone continues to sell. The problem is, many who wanted to sell have already done so.

**Change in rhythm**

I’ve noticed that the market’s volatility rhythm is changing. The previous sharp rises and falls are decreasing, replaced by more stable oscillations. This usually indicates that the market has reached some consensus, and big players are adjusting their strategies.

Looking at it from another angle, if the rate hike actually happens tomorrow and the market doesn’t crash, what do you think will happen? Many will start regretting because the chips they sold early will never come back. Meanwhile, those who held on will be the ones laughing last.

**Final words**

The market always likes to reverse unexpectedly. When everyone is waiting to watch the show or expect a decline, that’s often when the trend is brewing. I think the current widespread bearish sentiment about the rate hike might be just such a signal.

But risks are always present, and caution is necessary. However, blindly following the crowd into bearishness might be the biggest risk of all.