As of 2025-12-19 05:00, based on Jintou data and core market signals, the overall crypto market is currently dominated by a bearish trend, with weakening macroeconomic positive expectations and increased short-term volatility.

1. Core Bearish Signals

- Macro Expectations Cooling: After the Federal Reserve's December rate cut, Powell's stance remains ambiguous, with multiple officials emphasizing policy restrictions. CME shows only a 24.4% chance of a rate cut in January next year, indicating a significant cooling of market easing expectations.
- Weak Institutional Funds: This month, net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $2.3 billion, with institutional outflows suppressing liquidity. Banks like Standard Chartered have lowered their BTC price forecasts, and large holders' buying momentum has weakened.
- Fragile Market Sentiment: In the past 24 hours, approximately $544 million was liquidated across the entire network, with over 70% of liquidations involving longs. High leverage has triggered chain reactions of liquidations, causing wide fluctuations in BTC and ETH, with smaller-cap coins experiencing even more volatility.

2. Slight Positive Clues

- Federal Reserve officials hint that policies may be "too tight," with inflation approaching target levels, leaving room for future easing. However, short-term rate cut expectations have been dampened.
- Some ecosystems have made new progress (such as NEAR's mainnet new features and expanded stablecoin applications), but their impact on the broader market remains limited.

Conclusion: Currently, negative factors are more direct and carry higher weight. Positive expectations are mostly long-term and have not materialized. In the short term, risk management should be prioritized, with attention to Federal Reserve policy guidance and ETF capital flows.