The Northern Four Islands are only 0.3% smaller than Japan, so why have they become a strategic focus for China, Japan, Russia, and the United States?

A territory of less than 5,000 square kilometers, how does it influence the nerves of four major countries? This is the strange aspect of the Northern Four Islands. Compared to Japan's mainland area of 378,000 square kilometers, these four islands seem insignificant, yet due to their excellent geographical location and strategic value, they have become a decades-long headache in the Russia-Japan dispute.

**Historical Legacy of Geopolitical Dilemmas**

After the Yalta Conference in 1945, the Soviet Union took control of these four islands. Following the dissolution of the USSR, Russia seamlessly continued to regard them as the gateway to the Far East. Since the 1980s, Japan has established "Northern Territories Day," and successive prime ministers have negotiated with Russia, but Russia's stance has been consistent—this is a historical conclusion of World War II, with no room for negotiation.

Russia has invested heavily here, building a complete "military city" on Kunashir Island and Shikotan Island. Over 150 military facilities are densely packed, and the 18th Machine Gun Artillery Division is stationed there. More critically, Russia plans to deploy the "Bal-E" and "Fortress-P" anti-ship missile systems, capable of forming a firepower network within 350 kilometers, specifically targeting maritime threats.

**Delicate Game Among Three Parties**

If conflict erupts between China and Japan, the situation will become sharply more complicated. Japan's limited military resources will be fully constrained on the Asian continent, unable to manage the Northern Four Islands issue effectively. Russia will seize this opportunity to increase troop deployments on the islands, improve military bases, and even turn the natural deep-water port on Shikotan Island into a supply point for the Pacific Fleet. By then, even if Japan protests, it will be powerless.

After Japan followed Western sanctions against Russia in 2022, Russia immediately halted peace treaty negotiations and withdrew from joint development agreements. If China and Japan go to war, Russia will only become more proactive, leveraging the chaos to firmly lock in control of the Northern Four Islands.

**America's "Fishing in Troubled Waters"**

The biggest beneficiary is the United States. The 1951 U.S.-Japan Security Treaty has long paved the way for America's arms trade. In recent years, the U.S. has already taken action, signing three large-scale military procurement contracts with Japan in a short period: 400 "Tomahawk" cruise missiles, 150 "Standard"-6 missiles (worth $900 million), and 16 extended-range joint anti-air and anti-ship land-based missiles (worth $39 million).

These weapons are not just for show—"Tomahawk" missiles can strike over 1,600 kilometers, and "Standard"-6 can defend against air, anti-ship, and missile threats. During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Raytheon Technologies' arms profits increased by 20%. Once the China-Japan conflict escalates, Japan's military spending will grow exponentially, and U.S. defense companies are likely to ramp up production overnight.

**The Biggest Pawn**

Japan appears proactive but is actually caught in a dilemma. On one hand, it must respond to China; on the other, it keeps an eye on the Northern Four Islands. But these two issues are fundamentally incompatible. U.S. arms sales to Japan have always been expensive and come with various political conditions. The more Japan buys, the more it becomes tied to the U.S. war machine, ultimately at its mercy.

Meanwhile, Russia is taking advantage of Japan's paralysis to gradually strengthen its actual control over the Northern Four Islands. From leadership inspections to deploying advanced weapons, every step is consolidating the de facto situation. By the time Japan realizes what has happened after the war, the Northern Four Islands will already be an integral part of Russia, making any future claims even more difficult.

**A Settled Game of Chess**

This potential regional confrontation ultimately boils down to a strategic opportunity for Russia and the United States—one seeking to resolve territorial legacy issues, the other profiting immensely from arms sales. Japan is merely a tool caught in the middle, likely to end up empty-handed. Although the Northern Four Islands are small in area, they are enough to tear apart the entire East Asian situation.